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Convenience yield, realised volatility and jumps: Evidence from non-ferrous metals

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  • Omura, Akihiro
  • Li, Bin
  • Chung, Richard
  • Todorova, Neda

Abstract

Under the notion of convenience yield, a price of spot contract inherits relative implied value, against futures/forward contracts, for being readily available. This study examines the presence of a short-term lead-lag relationship between the volatility of futures price changes (including its decomposed components) and the convenience yield of major base metals, namely, aluminium, copper, nickel and zinc. Since an increase in the level of volatility may stimulate the demand for inventory, this study aims to provide alternative measures to understand the dynamic behaviour of convenience yield. Taken together, the results mostly support the presence of statistically significant relationships between the convenience yield and the realised volatility, which can be used for constructing effective inventory and investment strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Omura, Akihiro & Li, Bin & Chung, Richard & Todorova, Neda, 2018. "Convenience yield, realised volatility and jumps: Evidence from non-ferrous metals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 496-510.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:496-510
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.08.033
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity markets; Options; Realised volatility; Futures jump; Convenience yield; The theory of storage;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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