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Global Commodity Markets - Price Volatility and Financialisation

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandra Dwyer

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • George Gardner

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Thomas Williams

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

A significant increase in the level and volatility of many commodity prices over the past decade has led to a debate about what has driven these developments. A particular focus has been on the extent to which they have been driven by increased financial investment in commodity derivatives markets. This article examines the factors behind the increase in the level and volatility of commodity prices. The available evidence suggests that while financial investors can affect the short-run price dynamics for some commodities, the level and volatility of commodity prices appear to be primarily determined by fundamental factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandra Dwyer & George Gardner & Thomas Williams, 2011. "Global Commodity Markets - Price Volatility and Financialisation," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 49-58, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbabul:jun2011-07
    as

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    File URL: http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2011/jun/pdf/bu-0611-7.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-2.
    2. Cevik, Serhan & Saadi Sedik, Tahsin, 2014. "A Barrel of Oil or a Bottle of Wine: How Do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices?," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 34-50, May.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    4. Vanessa Rayner & Emily Laing & Jamie Hall, 2011. "Developments in Global Food Prices," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 15-22, March.
    5. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "On the short- and long-run efficiency of energy and precious metal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 832-844.
    2. Sadorsky, Perry, 2014. "Modeling volatility and correlations between emerging market stock prices and the prices of copper, oil and wheat," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 72-81.
    3. Creti, Anna & Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 16-28.
    4. Knop, Stephen J. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2014. "The sectorial impact of commodity price shocks in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 257-271.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14980 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bekiros, Stelios & Boubaker, Sabri & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2017. "Black swan events and safe havens: The role of gold in globally integrated emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 317-334.
    7. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "A roller coaster ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of the international wheat price," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(4), pages 459-475, July.
    8. Bekiros, Stelios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sandoval Junior, Leonidas & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2017. "Information diffusion, cluster formation and entropy-based network dynamics in equity and commodity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(3), pages 945-961.
    9. Chkili, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Volatility forecasting and risk management for commodity markets in the presence of asymmetry and long memory," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-18.
    10. Jozef Baruník, Evzen Kocenda and Lukáa Vácha, 2015. "Volatility Spillovers Across Petroleum Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    11. Schalck, Christophe & Chenavaz, Régis, 2015. "Oil commodity returns and macroeconomic factors: A time-varying approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 290-303.
    12. Buncic, Daniel & Moretto, Carlo, 2015. "Forecasting copper prices with dynamic averaging and selection models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-38.
    13. Khan, Aftab & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Correlation between Islamic stock and Commodity markets: An investigation into the impact of financial crisis and financialization of commodity markets," MPRA Paper 56979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. repec:fau:fauart:v:67:y:2017:i:3:p:166-198 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "Dynamic convergence of commodity futures: Not all types of commodities are alike," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 150-160.
    16. Jena, Pratap Kumar, 2015. "Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Variables in India: An Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach," MPRA Paper 73892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Basher, Syed Abul & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "Hedging emerging market stock prices with oil, gold, VIX, and bonds: A comparison between DCC, ADCC and GO-GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 235-247.
    18. repec:taf:quantf:v:17:y:2017:i:11:p:1745-1757 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Andreasson, Pierre & Bekiros, Stelios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "Impact of speculation and economic uncertainty on commodity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 115-127.
    20. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Sunny Chun Tsui & Wing Hong Chan, 2017. "Factor pricing in commodity futures and the role of liquidity," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(11), pages 1745-1757, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity; Commodities; Commodity prices; Commodity price; volatility; Speculation; Oil prices; Financialisation; Financialization; G-20; G20; CRB; Derivatives;

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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