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Les hausses récentes des cours des matières premières traduisent-elles l'entrée dans un régime de prix plus élevés?

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  • Cécile Couharde

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Vincent Geronimi
  • Armand Taranco

Abstract

In this paper, we seek to determine whether the recent increase in commodity prices, and especially in prices of food products, reflects a regime switch towards higher price levels. Accordingly, we use a Kalman filter and a Markov-switching model in order to analyze the evolution of terms-of-trade for commodities and food products over the period 1900-2010. Our results support the hypothesis that the commodity terms-of-trade have moved, since 2006 (2008 for food products), to a new regime characterized by an average price level about 50% higher than the one that prevailed over the period 1986-2005 (1986-2007 for food products).
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  • Cécile Couharde & Vincent Geronimi & Armand Taranco, 2012. "Les hausses récentes des cours des matières premières traduisent-elles l'entrée dans un régime de prix plus élevés?," Post-Print hal-01385858, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01385858
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    1. Vincent Géronimi & Claire Mainguy, 2020. "Exploitation minière et développement : des effets toujours controversés. Introduction," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(1), pages 7-29.

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