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Les hausses récentes des cours des matières premières traduisent-elles l'entrée dans un régime de prix plus élevés ?

Author

Listed:
  • Cécile Couharde
  • Vincent Géronimi
  • Armand Taranco

Abstract

In this paper, we seek to determine whether the recent increase in commodity prices, and especially in prices of food products, reflects a regime switch towards higher price levels. Accordingly, we use a Kalman filter and a Markov-switching model in order to analyze the evolution of terms-of-trade for commodities and food products over the period 1900-2010. Our results support the hypothesis that the commodity terms-of-trade have moved, since 2006 (2008 for food products), to a new regime characterized by an average price level about 50% higher than the one that prevailed over the period 1986-2005 (1986-2007 for food products).

Suggested Citation

  • Cécile Couharde & Vincent Géronimi & Armand Taranco, 2012. "Les hausses récentes des cours des matières premières traduisent-elles l'entrée dans un régime de prix plus élevés ?," Revue Tiers-Monde, Armand Colin, vol. 0(3), pages 13-34.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:rtmarc:rtm_211_0013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. Tae-Hwan Kim & Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Tony Rayner & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Testing for Linear Trend with Application to Relative Primary Commodity Prices," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 539-551, September.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
    4. Ocampo, José Antonio & Parra, María Angela, 2003. "The terms of trade for commodities in the twentieth century," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    5. Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Paul Newbold & Anthony Rayner, 2007. "A Short Note on Updating the Grilli and Yang Commodity Price Index," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(1), pages 151-163.
    6. Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-442, June.
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