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A model of commodity prices after Sir Arthur Lewis

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  • Deaton, Angus
  • Laroque, Guy

Abstract

We develop an idea from Arthur Lewis' paper on unlimited supplies of labor to model the long run behavior of the prices of primary commodity produced by poor countries. Commodity supply is assumed infinitely elastic in the long run, and the rate of growth of supply responds to the excess of the current price over the long run supply price. Demand is linked to the level of world income and to the price of the commodity, so that price is stationary around its supply price, and commodity supply and world income are cointegrated. The model is fitted to long-run historical data.
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Suggested Citation

  • Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 2003. "A model of commodity prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 289-310, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:71:y:2003:i:2:p:289-310
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, pages 1-23.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    4. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
    5. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 137-137.
    6. Robert Halvorsen & Tim R. Smith, 1991. "A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(1), pages 123-140.
    7. Lewis Cecil Gray, 1914. "Rent under the Assumption of Exhaustibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 466-489.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rabah Arezki & Daniel Lederman & Hongyan Zhao, 2014. "The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices: A Reappraisal," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, pages 939-951.
    2. Norbert Funke & Weifeng Wu & Yanliang Miao, 2011. "Reviving the Competitive Storage Model; A Holistic Approach to Food Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 11/64, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Hildegart Ahumada & Magdalena Cornejo, 2015. "Explaining commodity prices by a cointegrated time series-cross section model," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 1667-1690.
    4. Winkelried, Diego, 2016. "Piecewise linear trends and cycles in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 196-213.
    5. Arango, Santiago & Larsen, Erik, 2011. "Cycles in deregulated electricity markets: Empirical evidence from two decades," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2457-2466, May.
    6. Arango, Santiago & Castañeda, Jaime A. & Larsen, Erik R., 2013. "Mothballing in power markets: An experimental study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 125-134.
    7. Heun, Michael & Schlink, Torsten, 2004. "Early warning systems of financial crises: implementation of a currency crisis model for Uganda," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 59, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    8. Ghoshray, A. & Perera, A., 2011. "The Model of Commodity Prices after Sir Arthur Lewis Revisited," Department of Economics Working Papers 32991, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    9. Mirzabaev, Alisher & Tsegai, Daniel W., 2012. "Effects of weather shocks on agricultural commodity prices in Central Asia," Discussion Papers 140769, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    10. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Jean-François Brun, 2008. "Pouvoir de marché dans la filière cacao : l'hypothèse de Prebisch – Singer revisitée," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, pages 133-144.
    11. Matthias Basedau, 2005. "Context Matters – Rethinking the Resource Curse in Sub-Saharan Africa," GIGA Working Paper Series 01, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    12. Cafiero, Carlo & Bobenrieth H., Eugenio S.A. & Bobenrieth H., Juan R.A. & Wright, Brian D., 2011. "The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 44-54, May.
    13. Fu, Xiaolan & Kaplinsky, Raphael & Zhang, Jing, 2012. "The Impact of China on Low and Middle Income Countries’ Export Prices in Industrial-Country Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1483-1496.
    14. Lopez, Ramon E. & Stocking, Andrew, 2009. "Bringing Growth Theory "Down to Earth"," Working Papers 48944, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    15. Erten, Bilge & Ocampo, José Antonio, 2013. "Super Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 14-30.
    16. Thomas Barré, 2011. "Price expectations and price dynamics: the case of the rice sector in developing Asia," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00630711, HAL.
    17. Lay, Jann & Omar Mahmoud, Toman, 2004. "Bananas, oil, and development: examining the resource curse and its transmission channels by resource type," Kiel Working Papers 1218, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    18. Harvey, David I. & Kellard, Neil M. & Madsen, Jakob B. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Long-Run Commodity Prices, Economic Growth, and Interest Rates: 17th Century to the Present Day," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 57-70.
    19. Arango, Santiago & Moxnes, Erling, 2012. "Commodity cycles, a function of market complexity? Extending the cobweb experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 321-334.
    20. Boschi, Melisso & Pieroni, Luca, 2009. "Aluminium market and the macroeconomy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-207.
    21. Matthias Basedau, 2005. "Context Matters – Rethinking the Resource Curse in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic History 0508002, EconWPA.
    22. Mthuli Ncube & Daniel Zerfu Gurara & Dawit B. Tessema, 2014. "Working Paper 205 - Volatility and Co-movement in Commodity Prices- New Evidence," Working Paper Series 2135, African Development Bank.
    23. Sanidas, Elias, 2014. "Four harmonic cycles explain and predict commodity currencies' wide long term fluctuations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 135-151.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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