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Effects of weather shocks on wheat prices in Central Asia

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  • Mirzabaev, Alisher
  • Tsegai, Daniel

Abstract

Higher weather volatility may be reflected in higher incidences of weather shocks. Weather shocks could potentially affect the supply of agricultural commodities and their prices. In this study, the effects of weather shocks on agricultural commodity prices in Central Asia are investigated at the provincial scale using monthly data for the period of 2000-2010. The study uses an estimation method, where the idiosyncratic components of the variables are analyzed using Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) panel regression in the presence of cross-sectional dependence and serial autocorrelation. The analysis indicates that weather volatility and, especially, the fluctuations in the availability of irrigation water have statistically significant effects on wheat prices in Central Asia. Weather shocks, involving lower than usual temperatures and precipitation amounts, could create favorable conditions for higher wheat prices in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirzabaev, Alisher & Tsegai, Daniel, 2015. "Effects of weather shocks on wheat prices in Central Asia," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212466, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:212466
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    weather and price shocks; Central Asia; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; O13; Q11; Q54;

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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