Cycles in deregulated electricity markets: Empirical evidence from two decades
In this article, we discuss the "cycle hypothesis" in electricity generation, which states that the introduction of deregulation in an electricity system might lead to sustained fluctuations of over- and under-capacity. The occurrence of cycles is one of the major threats for electricity markets as it affects the security of supply, and creates uncertainty in both the profitability of electricity companies and in consumer prices. We discuss the background for these cycles using analogies with other capital-intensive industries, along with evidence from the analysis of behavioral simulation models as well as from experimental electricity markets. Using data from the oldest deregulated markets we find support for the hypothesis in the case of the English and Chilean markets, based on an autocorrelation analysis. Evidence from the Nordpool market is more ambiguous, although we might be observing the first half of a cycle in generation capacity. Comparing a simulation of the English market performed in 1992 with the actual performance we can observe that the qualitative behavior of the model is consistent with the actual evolution. Finally, we discuss possible mechanisms for damping cycles in electricity generation, such as mothballing, capacity payments, and reliability markets.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002.
"Booms and slumps in world commodity prices,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
- C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 99/155, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Ford, Andrew, 2001. "Waiting for the boom: : a simulation study of power plant construction in California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 847-869, September.
- Lynne Kiesling & Bart Wilson, 2007. "An experimental analysis of the effects of automated mitigation procedures on investment and prices in wholesale electricity markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 313-334, June.
- Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989.
"On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices,"
145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Sharp, J. A., 1982. "The dynamics of the UK chemical plant investment cycle," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 238-247, March.
- Lawrence M. Ausubel & Peter Cramton, 2009.
"Using Forward Markets to Improve Electricity Market Design,"
Papers of Peter Cramton
09ufm, University of Maryland, Department of Economics - Peter Cramton, revised 2009.
- Ausubel, Lawrence M. & Cramton, Peter, 2010. "Using forward markets to improve electricity market design," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 195-200, December.
- Berends, P. A. J. & Romme, A. G. L., 2001. "Cyclicality of capital-intensive industries: a system dynamics simulation study of the paper industry," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 543-552, December.
- L.J. de Vries & R.A. Hakvoort, 2004. "The Question of Generation Adequacy in Liberalised Electricity Markets," Working Papers 2004.120, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Andrew Ford, 2002. "Boom and Bust in Power Plant Construction: Lessons from the California Electricity Crisis," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 59-74, June.
- Paul Joskow & Jean Tirole, 2007.
"Reliability and competitive electricity markets,"
RAND Journal of Economics,
RAND Corporation, vol. 38(1), pages 60-84, 03.
- Paul L. Joskow & Jean Tirole, 2004. "Reliability and Competitive Electricity Markets," NBER Working Papers 10472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joskow, P. & Tirole, J., 2004. "Reliability and Competitive Electricity Markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0450, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Joskow, Paul L & Tirole, Jean, 2007. "Reliability and Competitive Electricity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 6121, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Paul Joskow & Jean Tirole, 2004. "Reliability and Competitive Electricity Markets," Working Papers 0408, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Joskow, Paul & Tirole, Jean, 2004. "Reliability and Competitive Electricity Markets," IDEI Working Papers 310, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Alvarez-Ramirez, J. & Escarela-Perez, R. & Espinosa-Perez, G. & Urrea, R., 2009. "Dynamics of electricity market correlations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(11), pages 2173-2188.
- Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 2003.
"A model of commodity prices after Sir Arthur Lewis,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 289-310, August.
- Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 2002. "A Model of Commodity Prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Working Papers 2002-19, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 2002. "A model of commodity prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Working Papers 201, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
- Ford, Andrew, 1999. "Cycles in competitive electricity markets: a simulation study of the western United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 637-658, October.
- Sensfuß, Frank & Ragwitz, Mario & Genoese, Massimo & Möst, Dominik, 2007. "Agent-based simulation of electricity markets: a literature review," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S5/2007, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
- Roques Fabien A. & Newbery David M. & Nuttall William J., 2005. "Investment Incentives and Electricity Market Design: the British Experience," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-36, June.
- Assili, Mohsen & Javidi D.B., M. Hossein & Ghazi, Reza, 2008. "An improved mechanism for capacity payment based on system dynamics modeling for investment planning in competitive electricity environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3703-3713, October.
- Lomi, Alessandro & Larsen, Erik, 1999. "Learning without experience: strategic implications of deregulation and competition in the electricity industry," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 151-163, April.
- Littlechild, S., 2005.
"Competition and contracts in the Nordic Residential Electricity Markets,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0550, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Littlechild, Stephen, 2006. "Competition and contracts in the Nordic residential electricity markets," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 135-147, September.
- Bidwell, Miles & Henney, Alex, 2004. "Will the New Electricity Trading Arrangements Ensure Generation Adequacy?," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(7), pages 15-38.
- Peter Cramton & Steven Stoft, 2008.
"Forward Reliability Markets: Less Risk, Less Market Power, More Efficiency,"
Papers of Peter Cramton
08frm, University of Maryland, Department of Economics - Peter Cramton, revised 2008.
- Cramton, Peter & Stoft, Steven, 2008. "Forward reliability markets: Less risk, less market power, more efficiency," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 194-201, September.
- Deaton, A., 1999.
"Commodity Prices and Growth in Aftica,"
186, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Roques, Fabien A., 2008.
"Market design for generation adequacy: Healing causes rather than symptoms,"
Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 171-183, September.
- Roques, F.A., 2008. "Market Design for Generation Adequacy: Healing Causes rather than Symptoms," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0821, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-42, June.
- Marek Kočan, 2008. "Cyclic behavior in dynamic investment decisions for deregulated energy markets," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 67-78, March.
- Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
- Bunn, Derek W & Larsen, Erik R, 1994. "Assessment of the uncertainty in future UK electricity investment using an industry simulation model," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 229-236, July.
- Paul L. Joskow, 2008. "Lessons Learned from Electricity Market Liberalization," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 9-42.
- Arango, Santiago & Castañeda, Jaime A. & Larsen, Erik R., 2013. "Mothballing in power markets: An experimental study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 125-134.
- David M. Newbery, 1995. "Power Markets and Market Power," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 39-66.
- Olsina, Fernando & Garces, Francisco & Haubrich, H.-J., 2006. "Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 1411-1433, August.
- Bunn, Derek W. & Larsen, Erik R., 1992. "Sensitivity of reserve margin to factors influencing investment behaviour in the electricity market of England and Wales," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 420-429, May.
- Xue-Zhong He & Frank H. Westerhoff, 2004.
"Commodity Markets, Price Limiters and Speculative Price Dynamics,"
Research Paper Series
136, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- He, Xue-Zhong & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2005. "Commodity markets, price limiters and speculative price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1577-1596, September.
- Redl, Christian & Haas, Reinhard & Huber, Claus & Böhm, Bernhard, 2009. "Price formation in electricity forward markets and the relevance of systematic forecast errors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 356-364, May.
- Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
- Max Kummerow, 1999. "A System Dynamics Model of Cyclical Office Oversupply," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 233-255.
- de Vries, Laurens & Heijnen, Petra, 2008. "The impact of electricity market design upon investment under uncertainty: The effectiveness of capacity mechanisms," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 215-227, September.
- Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:5:p:2457-2466. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.