The impact of electricity market design upon investment under uncertainty: The effectiveness of capacity mechanisms
This paper presents an analysis of different market designs under uncertainty about the future growth rate of demand. Markets for electricity generation appear to be prone to an investment cycle due to their capital-intensiveness and the long lead time of new generation facilities. We tested the stability of different capacity mechanisms in the presence of uncertainty regarding the demand growth rate with a stochastic dynamic model. Investment decisions were assumed to maximize profit, based on an assumed growth rate of demand that was equal to the rolling average of the previous five years. All capacity mechanisms proved effective in reducing the tendency towards an investment cycle, but to different degrees. Interestingly, an oligopoly that is able to raise average prices by 10% would also be able to substantially reduce price volatility and decrease the risk of shortages by increasing the reserve margin. Benefits of such a strategy for the generating companies could be that it would deter new market entrants and stave off the political attention that shortages and price spikes would bring about. However, the benefits to consumers are compromised by the lack of economic efficiency and distributional effects of an oligopoly, while the stability of such an oligopolistic strategy can be questioned. The most attractive solution is a system of reliability contracts, which can be used to stabilize both investment and prices, while reducing market power and providing more efficient operational incentives to generating companies.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul Joskow & Jean Tirole, 2007.
"Reliability and competitive electricity markets,"
RAND Journal of Economics,
RAND Corporation, vol. 38(1), pages 60-84, 03.
- Paul Joskow & Jean Tirole, 2004. "Reliability and Competitive Electricity Markets," Working Papers 0408, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Joskow, Paul L & Tirole, Jean, 2007. "Reliability and Competitive Electricity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 6121, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Joskow, Paul & Tirole, Jean, 2004. "Reliability and Competitive Electricity Markets," IDEI Working Papers 310, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Joskow, P. & Tirole, J., 2004. "Reliability and Competitive Electricity Markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0450, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Paul L. Joskow & Jean Tirole, 2004. "Reliability and Competitive Electricity Markets," NBER Working Papers 10472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- von der Fehr, N.-H. & Harbord,D., 1998. "Competition in Electricity Spot Markets. Economic Theory and International Experience," Memorandum 05/1998, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Nils-Henrik von der Fehr & David Harbord, 2002. "Competition in Electricity Spot Markets: Economic Theory and International Experience," Industrial Organization 0203006, EconWPA.
- Cramton, Peter & Stoft, Steven, 2008. "Forward reliability markets: Less risk, less market power, more efficiency," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 194-201, September.
- Peter Cramton & Steven Stoft, 2008. "Forward Reliability Markets: Less Risk, Less Market Power, More Efficiency," Papers of Peter Cramton 08frm, University of Maryland, Department of Economics - Peter Cramton, revised 2008.
- Neuhoff, Karsten & De Vries, Laurens, 2004. "Insufficient incentives for investment in electricity generations," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 253-267, December.
- Neuhoff, K. & de Vries, L., 2004. "'Insufficient Incentives for Investment in Electricity Generation’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0428, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Frank A. Wolak & Robert H. Patrick, 2001. "The Impact of Market Rules and Market Structure on the Price Determination Process in the England and Wales Electricity Market," NBER Working Papers 8248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Finon, Dominique & Pignon, Virginie, 2008. "Electricity and long-term capacity adequacy: The quest for regulatory mechanism compatible with electricity market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 143-158, September.
- Karsten Neuhoff, 2005. "Large-Scale Deployment of Renewables for Electricity Generation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 88-110, Spring.
- Neuhoff, K., 2004. "Large Scale Deployment of Renewables for Electricity Generation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0460, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Joskow, Paul L., 2008. "Capacity payments in imperfect electricity markets: Need and design," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 159-170, September.
- Ford, Andrew, 2001. "Waiting for the boom: : a simulation study of power plant construction in California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 847-869, September.
- D. Finon & V. Pignon, 2008. "Electricity and long-term capacity adequacy: The quest for regulatory mechanism compatible with electricity market," Post-Print hal-00716312, HAL.
- De Vries, Laurens J., 2007. "Generation adequacy: Helping the market do its job," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 20-35, March.
- Batlle, Carlos & Pérez-Arriaga, Ignacio J., 2008. "Design criteria for implementing a capacity mechanism in deregulated electricity markets," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 184-193, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:16:y:2008:i:3:p:215-227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.