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Missing money, missing policy and Resource Adequacy in Australia's National Electricity Market

Author

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  • Paul Simshauser

    (Griffith Business School, Griffith University Energy Policy Research Group, University of Cambridge)

Abstract

From 2012 to 2017, 5000 MW of coal plant exited Australia's National Electricity Market (NEM) with an average notice period of just 5.2 months. Exit at-scale peaked just as imbalances in the market for natural gas emerged along with Renewable Energy entry lags due to policy discontinuity. By 2016–2017, the culmination of events produced more than 20 Lack of Reserve notices, two blackouts including a black system event, and forward prices at record levels. These conditions are traced to policy decisions a decade earlier. Lessons for other energy markets undergoing transformation include transparency over exit decisions, policy stability and limits to gas export capacity.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Simshauser, 2018. "Missing money, missing policy and Resource Adequacy in Australia's National Electricity Market," Working Papers EPRG 1821, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg1821
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gonçalves, Ricardo & Menezes, Flávio, 2024. "The carbon tax and the crisis in Australia’s National Electricity Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Keppler, Jan Horst & Quemin, Simon & Saguan, Marcelo, 2022. "Why the sustainable provision of low-carbon electricity needs hybrid markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    3. Ricardo Gonçalves & Flávio Menezes, 2022. "Market‐wide impact of renewables on electricity prices in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 98(320), pages 1-21, March.
    4. Simshauser, Paul, 2020. "Merchant renewables and the valuation of peaking plant in energy-only markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Hung Do & Rabindra Nepal & Russell Smyth, 2020. "Interconnectedness in the Australian National Electricity Market: A Higher‐Moment Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(315), pages 450-469, December.
    6. Simshauser, Paul, 2021. "Renewable Energy Zones in Australia's National Electricity Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. Gonçalves, Ricardo & Menezes, Flávio, 2022. "The price impacts of the exit of the Hazelwood coal power plant," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    8. Gallego, Camilo A., 2025. "Marginal price impact under firm energy obligations in capacity remuneration mechanisms: The case of reliability options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Billimoria, Farhad & Mays, Jacob & Poudineh, Rahmat, 2025. "Hedging and tail risk in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Paul Simshauser & Joel Gilmore, 2020. "Is the NEM broken? Policy discontinuity and the 2017-2020 investment megacycle," Working Papers EPRG2014, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    11. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Kallies, Anne & Diaz Valdivia, Andres, 2021. "The status of and opportunities for utility-scale battery storage in Australia: A regulatory and market perspective," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Billimoria, Farhad & Poudineh, Rahmatallah, 2019. "Market design for resource adequacy: A reliability insurance overlay on energy-only electricity markets," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Simshauser, Paul & Akimov, Alexandr, 2019. "Regulated electricity networks, investment mistakes in retrospect and stranded assets under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 117-133.
    14. Yasir Alsaedi & Gurudeo Anand Tularam & Victor Wong, 2021. "Impact of the Nature of Energy Management and Responses to Policies Regarding Solar and Wind Pricing: A Qualitative Study of the Australian Electricity Markets," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 191-205.
    15. Khezr, Peyman & Nepal, Rabindra, 2021. "On the viability of energy-capacity markets under decreasing marginal costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    16. Simshauser, Paul & Gilmore, Joel, 2022. "Climate change policy discontinuity & Australia's 2016-2021 renewable investment supercycle," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    17. Simshauser, Paul & Gohdes, Nicholas, 2025. "Incomplete markets, pumped hydro storage and the role of policy in Australia's national electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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