The rational expectations hypothesis in models of primary commodity prices
The purpose of this paper is to examine the implications of the rational expectations hypothesis for the econometric modeling of primary commodity markets. Muth's Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) revolutionized economic theory and modeling on price formation in a simple agricultural market. The author studied the results of the few econometric models of primary commodity markets that have incorporated the REH. In a commodity price model, it is useful to distinguish between application of the REH to the physical production and consumption relationships and its application to how intertemporal stockholding affects short term price determination. In practice, most econometric work has concentrated on the implications of the REH for stock and price relationships.
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