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The Empirical Merit of Structural Explanations of Commodity Price Volatility: Review and Perspectives

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  • Nicolas Legrand

    (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST)

Abstract

This paper presents both the history of and state‐of‐the‐art in empirical modeling approaches to the world commodity price volatility. The analysis builds on the storage model and key milestones in its development. Specifically, it is intended to offer a reader unfamiliar with the relevant literature an insight into the modeling issues at stake from both a historical and speculative viewpoint. The review considers primarily the empirical techniques designed to assess the merits of the storage theory; it does not address purely statistical approaches that do not rely on storage theory and that have been studied in depth in other streams of the commodity price literature. The paper concludes with some suggestions for future research to try to resolve some of the existing empirical flaws, and hopefully to increase the explanatory power of the storage model.

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  • Nicolas Legrand, 2019. "The Empirical Merit of Structural Explanations of Commodity Price Volatility: Review and Perspectives," Post-Print hal-01924388, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01924388
    DOI: 10.1111/joes.12291
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    1. Nicolas Legrand, 2023. "“The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model” by Cafiero et al. (2011): Replication, robustness, and extension," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(3), pages 1493-1514, September.
    2. V., Ernesto Guerra & H., Eugenio Bobenrieth & H., Juan Bobenrieth & Wright, Brian D., 2023. "Endogenous thresholds in energy prices: Modeling and empirical estimation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Filippo Natoli, 2021. "Financialization Of Commodities Before And After The Great Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 488-511, April.
    4. Thomas J. Sargent & John Stachurski, 2024. "Dynamic Programming: Finite States," Papers 2401.10473, arXiv.org.
    5. Tore S. Kleppe & Atle Oglend, 2019. "Can limits‐to‐arbitrage from bounded storage improve commodity term‐structure modeling?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 865-889, July.

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    empirical validation; storage model; structural econometrics; commodity price dynamics;
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