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Bayesian Estimation of the Storage Model using Information on Quantities

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  • Gouel, Christophe
  • Legrand, Nicolas

Abstract

This paper presents a new strategy to estimate the rational expectations storage model. It uses information on prices and quantities – consumption and production – in contrast to previous approaches which use only prices. This additional information allows us to estimate a model with elastic supply, and to identify parameters such as supply and demand elasticities, which are left unidentified when using prices alone. The estimation relies on the Bayesian methods popularized in the literature on the estimation of DSGE models. It is carried out on a market representing the caloric aggregate of the four basic staples – maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat – from 1961 to 2006. The results show that to be consistent with the observed volatility of consumption, production, and price, elasticities have to be in the lower ranges of the elasticities in the literature, a result consistent with recent instrumental variable estimations on the same sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Gouel, Christophe & Legrand, Nicolas, 2017. "Bayesian Estimation of the Storage Model using Information on Quantities," TSE Working Papers 17-776, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:31555
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 15-74 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Carlo Cafiero & Eugenio S.A. Bobenrieth H. & Juan R.A. Bobenrieth H. & Brian D. Wright, 2015. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Standard Commodity Storage Model: Evidence from Sugar Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 122-136.
    4. V. Ernesto Alex Guerra & Eugenio Sebastián Antonio Bobenrieth H. & Juan Rodrigo Andrés Bobenrieth H. & Carlo Cafiero, 2015. "Editor's choice Empirical commodity storage model: the challenge of matching data and theory," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 607-623.
    5. Wright, Brian D & Williams, Jeffrey C, 1982. "The Economic Role of Commodity Storage," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 596-614, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity price dynamics; storage; Bayesian inference;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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