IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gii/giihei/heidwp04-2025.html

Shockwaves from Ukraine: Trends and Gaps in Agricultural Commodity Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Olga Bondarenko

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

Abstract

I propose partial-equilibrium models that describe the dynamics of global wheat and corn markets. These models extend the classic competitive storage framework by incorporating nonstationary variables. They are calibrated using data from Ukraine and key importing and exporting countries. The models enable the endogenous estimation of price trends, based on the observed movements in the underlying variables. This framework provides insights into how involuntary reductions in Ukraine’s global market presence, triggered by Russia’s invasion, could have affected trend prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Olga Bondarenko, 2025. "Shockwaves from Ukraine: Trends and Gaps in Agricultural Commodity Prices," IHEID Working Papers 04-2025, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp04-2025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.graduateinstitute.ch/pdfs/Working_papers/HEIDWP04-2025.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Toshichika Iizumi & Jing-Jia Luo & Andrew J. Challinor & Gen Sakurai & Masayuki Yokozawa & Hirofumi Sakuma & Molly E. Brown & Toshio Yamagata, 2014. "Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, September.
    2. Canova, Fabio, 2014. "Bridging DSGE models and the raw data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-15.
    3. Annelies Deuss & Marcel Adenäuer, 2020. "China’s grain reserves, price support and import policies: Examining the medium-term market impacts of alternative policy scenarios," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 138, OECD Publishing.
    4. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Comparing Numerical Methods for Solving the Competitive Storage Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 267-295, February.
    5. Christophe Gouel & Nicolas Legrand, 2017. "Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 744-763, June.
    6. Eugenio S.A. Bobenrieth & Juan R.A. Bobenrieth & Ernesto A. Guerra & Brian D. Wright & Di Zeng, 2021. "Putting the Empirical Commodity Storage Model Back on Track: Crucial Implications of a “Negligible” Trend," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1034-1057, May.
    7. Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar & John B. Taylor & Inna Tsener, 2020. "A tractable framework for analyzing a class of nonstationary Markov models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1289-1323, November.
    8. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 427-507, Elsevier.
    9. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2265-2295, October.
    10. Olga Bondarenko, 2023. "Agricultural Commodity Price Dynamics: Evidence from BVAR Models," Working Papers 03/2023, National Bank of Ukraine.
    11. Eugenio Bobenrieth & Brian Wright & Di Zeng, 2013. "Stocks-to-use ratios and prices as indicators of vulnerability to spikes in global cereal markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 43-52, November.
    12. Menzie D. Chinn & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 607-636, July.
    13. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
    14. Carroll, Christopher D., 2006. "The method of endogenous gridpoints for solving dynamic stochastic optimization problems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 312-320, June.
    15. Gustafson, Robert L., 1958. "Carryover levels for grains: A method for determining amounts that are optimal under specified conditions," Technical Bulletins 157231, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    16. Chahad, Mohammed & Hofmann-Drahonsky, Anna-Camilla & Page, Adrian & Tirpák, Marcel, 2023. "An updated assessment of short-term inflation projections by Eurosystem and ECB staff," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    17. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    18. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2019. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1873-1910, May.
    19. Adjemian, Michael K. & Janzen, Joseph & Carter, Colin A. & Smith, Aaron, 2014. "Deconstructing Wheat Price Spikes: A Model of Supply and Demand, Financial Speculation, and Commodity Price Comovement," Economic Research Report 167369, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christophe Gouel & Nicolas Legrand, 2025. "The role of storage in commodity markets: Indirect inference based on grain data," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(2), pages 705-747, May.
    2. Nicolas Legrand, 2019. "The Empirical Merit Of Structural Explanations Of Commodity Price Volatility: Review And Perspectives," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 639-664, April.
    3. Eugenio S.A. Bobenrieth & Juan R.A. Bobenrieth & Ernesto A. Guerra & Brian D. Wright & Di Zeng, 2021. "Putting the Empirical Commodity Storage Model Back on Track: Crucial Implications of a “Negligible” Trend," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1034-1057, May.
    4. Gouel, Christophe & Legrand, Nicolas, 2016. "Bayesian Estimation of the Storage Model using Information on Quantities," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235599, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Guerra Vallejos, Ernesto & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Eugenio & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Juan & Wright, Brian D., 2021. "Solving dynamic stochastic models with multiple occasionally binding constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    6. Christophe Gouel & Nicolas Legrand, 2017. "Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 744-763, June.
    7. Tran, A. Nam & Welch, Jarrod R. & Lobell, David & Roberts, Michael J. & Schlenker, Wolfram, 2012. "Commodity Prices and Volatility in Response to Anticipated Climate Change," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124827, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Juan R. A. Bobenrieth & Eugenio S. A. Bobenrieth & Andrés F. Villegas & Brian D. Wright, 2022. "Estimation of Endogenous Volatility Models with Exponential Trends," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-27, July.
    9. Gabriela Simonet & Julie Subervie & Driss Ezzine-de-Blas & Marina Cromberg & Amy Duchelle, 2015. "Paying smallholders not to cut down the Amazon forest: Impact evaluation of a REDD+ pilot project," Working Papers 15-14, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Oct 2015.
    10. V., Ernesto Guerra & H., Eugenio Bobenrieth & H., Juan Bobenrieth & Wright, Brian D., 2023. "Endogenous thresholds in energy prices: Modeling and empirical estimation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    11. Roberts, Michael J. & Tran, A. Nam, 2013. "Conditional Suspension of the US Ethanol Mandate using Threshold Price inside a Competitive Storage Model," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150717, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Roberts, Michael J. & Tran, A. Nam, 2012. "Commodity Price Adjustment in a Competitive Storage Model with an Application to the US Biofuel Policies," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124869, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. De Lipsis, Vincenzo & Agnolucci, Paolo, 2024. "Climate change and the US wheat commodity market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    14. Elgouacem, Assia & Legrand, Nicolas, 2019. "The Delaying Effect of Storage on Investment: Evidence from The Crude Oil Sector," 2019 Conference, April 15-16, 2019, Minneapolis, Minnesota 309626, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    15. Valenti, Daniele & Bertoni, Danilo & Cavicchioli, Davide & Olper, Alessandro, "undated". "Understanding the role of supply and demand factors in the global wheat market: a Structural Vector Autoregressive approach," FEEM Working Papers 338780, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    16. Pfuderer, Simone, 2014. "Are stockholders rational? An experimental approach to testing the competitive storage model," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 170537, Agricultural Economics Society.
    17. Gouel, Christophe & Ma, Qingyin & Stachurski, John, 2024. "Interest rate dynamics and commodity prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    18. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Li, Jian, "undated". "The Effects of Private Stocks versus Public Stocks on Food Price Volatility," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259185, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Dorosh, Paul & Minot, Nicholas & Rashid, Shahidur, 2025. "Food price stabilization: theory and lessons from experience," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Comparing Numerical Methods for Solving the Competitive Storage Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 267-295, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp04-2025. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dorina Dobre (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ieheich.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.