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Using USDA Forecasts to Estimate the Price Flexibility of Demand for Agricultural Commodities

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  • Michael K. Adjemian
  • Aaron Smith

Abstract

We estimate the general equilibrium price flexibility of demand for corn and soybeans using monthly changes in expected supply published by the USDA. Our estimates reflect the demand response to a one-year supply shock and thus correspond to the inverse demand elasticity. We derive the conditions under which our estimates are consistent, and we show how demand flexibility varies by season, inventory, time horizon, and demand composition. At average inventory and without accounting for corn-ethanol use, we obtain price flexibility estimates of - 1.35 and - 1.03 for corn and soybeans, respectively. Current corn-ethanol production levels are associated with much larger absolute flexibilities for both commodities. Copyright 2012, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael K. Adjemian & Aaron Smith, 2012. "Using USDA Forecasts to Estimate the Price Flexibility of Demand for Agricultural Commodities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(4), pages 978-995.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:94:y:2012:i:4:p:978-995
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ajae/aas032
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Xiaohong, 2016. "New models to estimate costs of US farm programs," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800006209, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Zhou, Wei & Babcock, Bruce A., 2014. "Endogenous Price in a Dynamic Model for Agricultural Supply Analysis," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170584, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Zhu, Xiaohong, 2016. "New models to estimate costs of US farm programs," ISU General Staff Papers 3547, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Gouel, Christophe & Legrand, Nicolas, 2016. "Bayesian Estimation of the Storage Model using Information on Quantities," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235599, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Zhou, Wei, 2015. "Three essays on modeling biofuel feedstock supply," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005728, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Verteramo Chiu, Leslie J. & Tomek, William G., 2016. "Anticipatory Signals of Changes in Corn Demand," Working Papers 250032, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    7. repec:wly:japmet:v:32:y:2017:i:4:p:744-763 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Christophe Gouel & Nicolas Legrand, 2017. "Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 744-763, June.
    9. Aaron Smith, 2014. "Comment on "Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC's Daily Large Trader Data Files"," NBER Chapters,in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 253-259 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. U. Martin Persson, 2015. "The impact of biofuel demand on agricultural commodity prices: a systematic review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(5), pages 410-428, September.
    11. Gabriela Simonet & Julie Subervie & Driss Ezzine-De-Blas & Marina Cromberg & Amy Duchelle, 2015. "Paying smallholders not to cut down the amazon forest: impact evaluation of a REDD+ pilot project," Working Papers 1514, Chaire Economie du climat.
    12. Bruce A. Babcock & Wei Zhou, 2013. "Impact on Corn Prices from Reduced Biofuel Mandates," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 13-wp543, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    13. Caceres-Hernandez, Jose Juan & Martin-Rodriguez, Gloria & González Gómez, José Ignacio & Nuez Yánez, Juan Sebastian, 2013. "Canary banana exports. Are product withdrawal decisions rational?," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2).
    14. Verteramo Chiu, Leslie & Tomek, William, 2016. "Anticipatory Signals of Changes in U.S. Corn Demand," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235869, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Adjemian, Michael K. & Janzen, Joseph & Carter, Colin A. & Smith, Aaron, 2014. "Deconstructing Wheat Price Spikes: A Model of Supply and Demand, Financial Speculation, and Commodity Price Comovement," Economic Research Report 167369, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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