Estimating the rational expectations model of speculative storage : a Monte Carlo comparison of three simulation estimators
The non-negativity constraint on inventories imposed on the rational expectations theory of speculative storage implies that the conditional mean and variance of commodity prices are non-linear in lagged prices and have a kink at a threshold point. In this paper, the structural parameters of this model are estimated using three simulation-based estimators. In a Monte Carlo experiment, the finite sample properties of the simulated methods of moments estimator of Duffie and Singleton (1993, Econometrica 61 (4), 929–952) the indirect inference estimator of Gourieroux et al. (1993, Journal of Applied Economterics 8, S85–S118) and the efficient method of moments estimator of Gallant and Tauchen (1996, Econometric Theory 12, 657–681) are assessed. Exploiting the invariant distribution implied by the theory allows us to evaluate the error induced by simulations. Our results show that the estimators differ in their sensitivity to the sample size, the number of simulations, choice of auxiliary models, and computation demands. For some estimators, the test for overidentifying restrictions exhibit significant size distortions in small samples. Overall, while the simulation estimators have small bias, they are less efficient than pseudo-maximum likelihood (PMLE). Hence for the small sample sizes considered, the simulation estimators are still inferior to the PMLE estimates in a mean-squared sense.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Econometrics, June, 2000, 96(2), pp. 231-266. ISSN: 0304-4076|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +44 (020) 7405 7686
Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sydney Ludvigson, 1996.
"Consumption and credit: a model of time-varying liquidity constraints,"
9624, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Sydney Ludvigson, 1999. "Consumption And Credit: A Model Of Time-Varying Liquidity Constraints," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 434-447, August.
- Ng, S., 1995.
"Looking for Evidence of Speculative Stockholding in Commodity Markets,"
Cahiers de recherche
9514, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Ng, Serena, 1996. "Looking for evidence of speculative stockholding in commodity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 123-143.
- Ng, S., 1995. "Looking for Evidence of Speculative Stockholding in Commodity Markets," Cahiers de recherche 9514, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992.
92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993.
"Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-52, July.
- Darrell Duffie & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1990. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," NBER Technical Working Papers 0087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Andrew A. Samwick, 1995.
"How Important is Precautionary Saving?,"
NBER Working Papers
5194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher D Carroll, 1990.
"Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
371, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Aug 1996.
- Carroll, Christopher D, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55, February.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 1996. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 5788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:att:wimass:9722 is not listed on IDEAS
- Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Parker, Jonathan A, 2000.
"Consumption Over the Life-Cycle,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2345, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1992.
"On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23, January.
- Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989. "On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices," Papers 145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
- Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989. "On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices," Papers 145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1990. "On The Behavior of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 3439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, 1992.
"Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models,"
9202, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
- Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1993. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 497-529, July.
- Hotz, V.J. & Miller, R.A., 1991. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," GSIA Working Papers 1992-12, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bansal, Ravi & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hussey, Robert & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 251-287.
- Sumru Altug, 1986.
"Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence,"
277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Altug, Sumru, 1989. "Time-to-Build and Aggregate Fluctuations: Some New Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 889-920, November.
- Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
- Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997.
"The nature of precautionary wealth,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September.
- Deaton, Angus, 1991.
"Saving and Liquidity Constraints,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-48, September.
- Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1995. "Estimating a Nonlinear Rational Expectations Commodity Price Model with Unobservable State Variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(S), pages S9-40, Suppl. De.
- Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
- Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
- Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995.
"Which Moments to Match,"
95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:198. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (LSERO Manager)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.