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A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations


  • Chambers, Marcus J
  • Bailey, Roy E


This paper studies the price fluctuations of storable commodities that are traded in open markets and are subject to random shocks to demand or, more particularly, to supply. It relaxes the common assumption that the shocks are identically and independently distributed in favor of temporally dependent and periodic disturbances. The existence of a unique stationary rational expectations equilibrium is demonstrated for each of the models analyzed and testable implications of the models are derived. An illustrative empirical investigation is then undertaken for the model with periodic disturbances using monthly time-series observations for seven commodities over the period 1960-93. Copyright 1996 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Chambers, Marcus J & Bailey, Roy E, 1996. "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 924-957, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:104:y:1996:i:5:p:924-57

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-787, October.
    2. Laroque, Guy & Salanie, Bernard, 1994. "Estimating the canonical disequilibrium model : Asymptotic theory and finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 165-210, June.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Luttmer, Erzo G J, 1995. "Econometric Evaluation of Asset Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 237-274.
    4. Hopenhayn, Hugo A & Prescott, Edward C, 1992. "Stochastic Monotonicity and Stationary Distributions for Dynamic Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1387-1406, November.
    5. Chambers, Marcus J & Bailey, Roy E, 1996. "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 924-957, October.
    6. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1977. "Martingale, market efficiency and commodity prices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17.
    7. Brian D. Wright & Jeffrey C. Williams, 1989. "A theory of negative prices for storage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, February.
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