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Market News in Commodity Price Theory: Application to the Ethiopian Grain Market

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  • Theresa Osborne

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of "news" or advance information about future production on competitive storage behaviour and prices using a structural model of commodity markets. In particular, it generalizes the neoclassical storage model to incorporate information on future harvests, while allowing for seasonal production, two features important to African and other developing country grain markets. The model is first developed to suit the case of the Ethiopian grain markets, and a general model is then stated. The effects on welfare and price variability of the addition of news are discussed, as well as changes in key demand and uncertainty parameters. The model is shown to replicate some features of the data better than the model without news, particularly the high autocorrelation in price, and performs better in formal estimation. However, it appears that the incorporation of news still fails to explain the extreme seasonal price movements observed. Copyright 2004, Wiley-Blackwell.

Suggested Citation

  • Theresa Osborne, 2004. "Market News in Commodity Price Theory: Application to the Ethiopian Grain Market," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(1), pages 133-164.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:71:y:2004:i:1:p:133-164
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/0034-6527.00279
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, pages 129-156.
    2. Matthias Kalkuhl & Lukas Kornher & Matthias Kalkuhl & Irfan Mujahid, 2015. "Food price volatility in developing countries – the role of trade and storage," EcoMod2015 8415, EcoMod.
    3. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 347, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    4. Osborne, Theresa, 2005. "Imperfect competition in agricultural markets: evidence from Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 405-428.
    5. Fulgence J. Mishili & Anna A. Temu & Joan Fulton & J. Lowenberg-DeBoer, 2009. "Consumer Preferences As Drivers Of The Common Bean Trade In Tanzania: A Marketing Perspective," Working Papers 09-02, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    6. repec:eee:ecosta:v:4:y:2017:i:c:p:39-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mark Coppejans & Donna Gilleskie & Holger Sieg & Koleman Strumpf, "undated". "Consumer Demand under Price Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Market for Cigarettes," GSIA Working Papers 2006-E43, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    8. He, Xue-Zhong & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2005. "Commodity markets, price limiters and speculative price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 1577-1596.
    9. Haile, Mekbib G & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Usman, Muhammed A, 2015. "Market information and smallholder farmer price expectations," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(4), December.
    10. He, Xue-Zhong & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2005. "Commodity markets, price limiters and speculative price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 1577-1596.
    11. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Comparing Numerical Methods for Solving the Competitive Storage Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 267-295, February.
    12. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Birru, Yohannes A., 2010. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 478, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 03 Jun 2013.
    13. Chaudhry, Muhammad Imran & Katchova, Ani & Miranda, Mario Javier, 2016. "Examining pricing mechanics in the poultry value chain - empirical evidence from Pakistan," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235953, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2013. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 89-106.
    15. Mark Coppejans & Donna Gilleskie & Holger Sieg & Koleman Strumpf, "undated". "Consumer Demand under Price Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Market for Cigarettes," GSIA Working Papers 2006-E43, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.

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