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Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a "Carry Trade" Model of Commodity Prices

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  • Jeffrey A. Frankel

Abstract

The paper presents and estimates a model of the prices of oil and other storable commodities, a model that can be characterized as reflecting the carry trade. It focuses on speculative factors, here defined as the trade-off between interest rates on the one hand and market participants' expectations of future price changes on the other hand. It goes beyond past research by bringing to bear new data sources: survey data to measure expectations of future changes in commodity prices and options data to measure perceptions of risk. Some evidence is found of a negative effect of interest rates on the demand for inventories and thereby on commodity prices and positive effects of expected future price gains on inventory demand and thereby on today's commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2013. "Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a "Carry Trade" Model of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 19463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19463 Note: ITI IFM
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    Cited by:

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    2. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2015. "Does the euro area macroeconomy affect global commodity prices? Evidence from a SVAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 485-503.
    3. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "US monetary policy and sectoral commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 61-85.
    4. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "US Monetary Policy and Commodity Sector Prices," Working Papers 2014-438, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    5. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "A roller coaster ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of the international wheat price," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(4), pages 459-475, July.
    6. Christian Pierdzioch & Marian Risse & Sebastian Rohloff, 2016. "Fluctuations of the real exchange rate, real interest rates, and the dynamics of the price of gold in a small open economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 1481-1499.
    7. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1165-6 is not listed on IDEAS
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    9. Olson, Eric & J. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "The relationship between energy and equity markets: Evidence from volatility impulse response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 297-305.
    10. repec:eco:journ2:2017-04-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Adams, Zeno & Kartsakli, Maria, 2017. "Has Crude Oil Become a Financial Asset? Evidence from Ten Years of Financialization," Working Papers on Finance 1710, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    12. Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2015. "Dynamic steam coal market integration: Evidence from rolling cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 510-520.
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    15. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 209-220.
    16. Joseph P. Byrne & Marco Lorusso & Bing Xu, 2017. "Oil Prices and Informational Frictions: The Time-Varying Impact of Fundamentals and Expectations," CEERP Working Paper Series 006, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
    17. Byrne, Joseph P & Sakemoto, Ryuta & Xu, Bing, 2017. "Commodity Price Co-movement: Heterogeneity and the Time Varying Impact of Fundamentals," MPRA Paper 80791, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ebner, Julia, 2015. "The Sino–European race for Africa׳s minerals: When two quarrel a third rejoices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 112-120.
    19. Mthuli Ncube & Daniel Zerfu Gurara & Dawit B. Tessema, 2014. "Working Paper 205 - Volatility and Co-movement in Commodity Prices- New Evidence," Working Paper Series 2135, African Development Bank.
    20. Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2016. "Commodity markets volatility transmission: Roles of risk perceptions and uncertainty in financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 35-45.

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    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q39 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Other

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