The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline
This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for energy commodities (crude oil, gasoline, heating oil markets and natural gas). In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot prices. We find that while futures prices are unbiased predictors of future spot prices, with the exception those in the natural gas markets at the 3-month horizon. Futures do not appear to well predict subsequent movements in energy commodity prices, although they slightly outperform time series models.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Moosa, Imad A. & Al-Loughani, Nabeel E., 1994. "Unbiasedness and time varying risk premia in the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 99-105, April.
- Benjamin Hunt & Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton, 2002.
"The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices,"
National Institute Economic Review,
National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 179(1), pages 87-103, January.
- Herbert, John H., 1993. "The relation of monthly spot to futures prices for natural gas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 18(11), pages 1119-1124.
- Imad A. Moosa & Nabeel E. Al‐Loughani, 1995. "The effectiveness of arbitrage and speculation in the crude oil futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 167-186, 04.
- John H. Cochrane, 1988. "Production Based Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 2776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William J. Crowder & Anas Hamed, 1993. "A cointegration test for oil futures market efficiency," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(8), pages 933-941, December.
- W. David Walls, 1995. "An Econometric Analysis of the Market for Natural Gas Futures," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 71-84.
- Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005.
"Storage and Commodity Markets,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, November.
- Serletis, Apostolos, 1991. "Rational expectations, risk and efficiency in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 111-115, April.
- Cochrane, John H, 1991. " Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 209-37, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.