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An Econometric Analysis of the Market for Natural Gas Futures

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  • W. David Walls

Abstract

This research tests a form of the efficient markets hypothesis in the, market for natural gas futures. Unlike other studies of futures markets, the test for market efficiency is conducted at numerous locations which comprise the, natural gas spot market in addition to the delivery location specified in the futures contract. Natural gas spot and futures prices are found to be nonstationary and accordingly are modeled using recently developed maximum likelihood cointegration techniques. The futures market price is found to be cointegrated with nearly all of the spot market prices across the national network of gas pipelines. The hypothesis of market efficiency can be rejected in 3 of the 13 spot markets examined.

Suggested Citation

  • W. David Walls, 1995. "An Econometric Analysis of the Market for Natural Gas Futures," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 71-84.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1995v16-01-a05
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle & Dale, Larry & Lekov, Alex, 2006. "Comparing price forecast accuracy of natural gas models and futures markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 4115-4122, December.
    2. Herbert, John H & Kreil, Erik, 1996. "US natural gas markets : How efficient are they?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-5, January.
    3. Menzie D. Chinn & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 607-636, July.
    4. Woo, Chi-Keung & Horowitz, Ira & Olson, Arne & Horii, Brian & Baskette, Carmen, 2006. "Efficient frontiers for electricity procurement by an LDC with multiple purchase options," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 70-80, January.
    5. Juris, Andrej, 1998. "Development of natural gas and pipeline capacity markets in the United States," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1897, The World Bank.
    6. Root, Thomas H. & Lien, Donald, 2003. "Can modeling the natural gas futures market as a threshold cointegrated system improve hedging and forecasting performance?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 117-133.
    7. Kyle Olsen & James Mjelde & David Bessler, 2015. "Price formulation and the law of one price in internationally linked markets: an examination of the natural gas markets in the USA and Canada," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(1), pages 117-142, January.
    8. Ghoddusi, Hamed, 2016. "Integration of physical and futures prices in the US natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 229-238.
    9. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael LeBlanc & Olivier Coibion, 2005. "The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline," NBER Working Papers 11033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Mu, Xiaoyi, 2007. "Weather, storage, and natural gas price dynamics: Fundamentals and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 46-63, January.
    11. Modjtahedi, Bagher & Movassagh, Nahid, 2005. "Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 617-637, July.
    12. Baskette, C. & Horii, B. & Kollman, E. & Price, S., 2006. "Avoided cost estimation and post-reform funding allocation for California's energy efficiency programs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1084-1099.
    13. Lien, Donald & Root, Thomas H., 1999. "Convergence to the long-run equilibrium: the case of natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 95-110, April.
    14. Bopp, A. E. & Kannan, V. R. & Palocsay, S. W. & Stevens, S. P., 1996. "An optimization model for planning natural gas purchases, transportation, storage and deliverability," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 511-522, October.
    15. Bolinger, Mark & Wiser, Ryan & Golove, William, 2006. "Accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable to gas-fired generation: the role of forward natural gas prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 706-720, April.
    16. Evan Osborne, 2001. "Efficient Markets? Don’t Bet on It," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 2(1), pages 50-61, February.
    17. Tonn, Victor Lux & Li, H.C. & McCarthy, Joseph, 2010. "Wavelet domain correlation between the futures prices of natural gas and oil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 408-414, November.
    18. Woo, C.K. & Olson, A. & Horowitz, I., 2006. "Market efficiency, cross hedging and price forecasts: California's natural-gas markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 1290-1304.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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