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Can modeling the natural gas futures market as a threshold cointegrated system improve hedging and forecasting performance?

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  • Root, Thomas H.
  • Lien, Donald

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  • Root, Thomas H. & Lien, Donald, 2003. "Can modeling the natural gas futures market as a threshold cointegrated system improve hedging and forecasting performance?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 117-133.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:12:y:2003:i:2:p:117-133
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    2. W. David Walls, 1995. "An Econometric Analysis of the Market for Natural Gas Futures," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 71-84.
    3. Martin Martens & Paul Kofman & Ton C. F. Vorst, 1998. "A threshold error-correction model for intraday futures and index returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 245-263.
    4. Granger, Clive W J & Haldrup, Niels, 1997. "Separation in Cointegrated Systems and Persistent-Transitory Decompositions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 449-463, November.
    5. Serletis, Apostolos, 1994. "A cointegration analysis of petroleum futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 93-97, April.
    6. O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2002. ""The bigger they are, the harder they fall": Retail price differences across U.S. cities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 21-53, January.
    7. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 441-479, December.
    8. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-484, November.
    9. O'Connell, P. G. J., 1998. "Market frictions and real exchange rates1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 71-95, February.
    10. Mine K. VĂ¼cel & Shengyi Guo, 1994. "Fuel Taxes And Cointegration Of Energy Prices," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 33-41, July.
    11. Emile J. Brinkmann & Ramon Rabinovitch, 1995. "Regional Limitations on the Hedging Effectiveness of Natural Gas Futures," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 113-124.
    12. De Vany, A. & Walls, W.D., 1994. "The Law of One Price in a Network: Arbitrage and Price Dynamics in Natural Gas City Gate Markets," Papers 93-94-17, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
    13. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    14. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 23-42, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nick, Sebastian, 2013. "Price Formation and Intertemporal Arbitrage within a Low-Liquidity Framework: Empirical Evidence from European Natural Gas Markets," EWI Working Papers 2013-14, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    2. Nicolau, Mihaela & Palomba, Giulio, 2015. "Dynamic relationships between spot and futures prices. The case of energy and gold commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 130-143.
    3. Sebastian Nick, 2016. "The Informational Efficiency of European Natural Gas Hubs: Price Formation and Intertemporal Arbitrage," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. Mihaela NICOLAU & Giulio PALOMBA & Ilaria TRAINI, 2013. "Are Futures Prices Influenced by Spot;Prices or Vice-versa? An Analysis of Crude;Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Markets," Working Papers 394, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

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