IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v334y2024i1d10.1007_s10479-022-04750-z.html

How efficient are natural gas markets in practice? A wavelet-based approach

Author

Listed:
  • Amina Baba

    (PSL - University Paris Dauphine)

  • Sana Ben Kebaier

    (PSL - University Paris Dauphine)

  • Anna Creti

    (PSL - University Paris Dauphine)

Abstract

This paper is the first attempt to provide a comprehensive account of pricing and informational efficiency of the US and EU natural gas markets. We rely on Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet decomposition (MODWT) of daily data of US Henry Hub, British NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas physical and futures returns at different maturities between 2013 and 2019. Multiscale linear and nonlinear Granger causality and random walk testing are investigated. We find that futures prices and spot prices of Henry Hub, NBP, and TTF are cointegrated. Moreover, multiscale causality testing shows that Henry Hub markets exhibit strong bidirectional causality between spot and futures markets. EU markets are globally efficient in terms of pricing despite some inconsistencies on the causality direction across time scales and maturities of the futures contracts. Finally, for the three selected futures markets, informational efficiency is reached only in the long-run. The results make it possible to establish an evaluation of the hubs in terms of their capacity to provide reliable reference prices for the quantities of gas under contract through a discussion on the crucial role of liquidity and storage capacity.

Suggested Citation

  • Amina Baba & Sana Ben Kebaier & Anna Creti, 2024. "How efficient are natural gas markets in practice? A wavelet-based approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 334(1), pages 623-677, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:334:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-022-04750-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-022-04750-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-022-04750-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-022-04750-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:aen:journl:ej37-2-nick is not listed on IDEAS
    2. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    3. Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 1993. "Pipeline Access and Market Integration in the Natural Gas Industry: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," The Energy Journal, , vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, October.
    4. Rafael Garaffa & Alexandre Szklo & André F.P. Lucena & José Gustavo Féres, 2019. "Price Adjustments and Transaction Costs in the European Natural Gas Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(1), pages 171-188, January.
    5. Menzie D. Chinn & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 607-636, July.
    6. repec:aen:journl:1995v16-01-a05 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ding, Zhihua & Liu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Yuejun & Long, Ruyin, 2017. "The contagion effect of international crude oil price fluctuations on Chinese stock market investor sentiment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 27-36.
    8. Herbert, John H & Kreil, Erik, 1996. "US natural gas markets : How efficient are they?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-5, January.
    9. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2017. "Wavelet-based test of co-movement and causality between oil and renewable energy stock prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-252.
    10. Param Silvapulle & Imad A. Moosa, 1999. "The relationship between spot and futures prices: Evidence from the crude oil market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 175-193, April.
    11. Emmanuel Dechenaux & Dan Kovenock, 2011. "Endogenous rationing, price dispersion and collusion in capacity constrained supergames," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(1), pages 29-74, May.
    12. Herbert, John H, 1995. "Trading volume, maturity and natural gas futures price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 293-299, October.
    13. Hobæk Haff, Ingrid & Lindqvist, Ola & Løland, Anders, 2008. "Risk premium in the UK natural gas forward market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2420-2440, September.
    14. Zied Ftiti & Fredj Jawadi & Wael Louhichi & Mohamed El Arbi Madani, 2021. "Are oil and gas futures markets efficient? A multifractal analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 164-184, January.
    15. Choi, In, 1999. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis for Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 293-308, May-June.
    16. Hirschhausen, Christian von, 2008. "Infrastructure, regulation, investment and security of supply: A case study of the restructured US natural gas market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, March.
    17. repec:aen:journl:ej40-1-russo is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Frank Asche & Petter Osmundsen & Maria Sandsmark, 2006. "The UK Market for Natural Gas, Oil and Electricity: Are the Prices Decoupled?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 27(2), pages 27-40, April.
    19. Hassan Mohammadi, 2011. "Long-run relations and short-run dynamics among coal, natural gas and oil prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 129-137.
    20. Walls W. David, 1995. "An Econometric Analysis of the Market for Natural Gas Futures," The Energy Journal, , vol. 16(1), pages 71-83, January.
    21. Patrick M. Crowley, 2007. "A Guide To Wavelets For Economists," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 207-267, April.
    22. Baeck, E.G. & Brock, W.A., 1992. "A Nonparametric Test for Independence of a Multivariate Time Series," Working papers 9204, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    23. repec:aen:journl:1993v14-04-a01 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
    25. Stronzik, Marcus & Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Neumann, Anne, 2009. "Does the European natural gas market pass the competitive benchmark of the theory of storage? Indirect tests for three major trading points," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5432-5439, December.
    26. de Menezes, Lilian M. & Russo, Marianna & Urga, Giovanni, 2019. "Measuring liquidity in gas markets: The case of the UK National Balancing Point," Papers RB201906, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    27. Bohl, Martin T. & Stephan, Patrick M., . "Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Spot Prices? New Evidence for Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1-21.
    28. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Diks, Cees G.H., 2008. "The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2673-2685, September.
    29. repec:aen:journl:ej40-1-garaffa is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Maskin, Eric & Tirole, Jean, 1988. "A Theory of Dynamic Oligopoly, II: Price Competition, Kinked Demand Curves, and Edgeworth Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 571-599, May.
    31. Nicolau, Mihaela & Palomba, Giulio, 2015. "Dynamic relationships between spot and futures prices. The case of energy and gold commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 130-143.
    32. Powell, James L. & Stoker, Thomas M., 1996. "Optimal bandwidth choice for density-weighted averages," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 291-316, December.
    33. repec:aen:journl:1996v17-02-a02 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Doane, Michael J & Spulber, Daniel F, 1994. "Open Access and the Evolution of the U.S. Spot Market for Natural Gas," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(2), pages 477-517, October.
    35. Miroslava Zavadska & Lucía Morales & Joseph Coughlan, 2018. "The Lead–Lag Relationship between Oil Futures and Spot Prices—A Literature Review," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, October.
    36. Sebastian Nick, 2016. "The Informational Efficiency of European Natural Gas Hubs: Price Formation and Intertemporal Arbitrage," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(2), pages 1-30, April.
    37. repec:aen:journl:2006v27-02-a02 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Bohl, Martin T. & Stephan, Patrick M., 2013. "Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Spot Prices? New Evidence for Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 595-616, November.
    39. Lilian M. de Menezes & Marianna Russo & Giovanni Urga, 2019. "Measuring and Assessing the Evolution of Liquidity in Forward Natural Gas Markets: The Case of the UK National Balancing Point," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(1), pages 143-170, January.
    40. Mu, Xiaoyi, 2007. "Weather, storage, and natural gas price dynamics: Fundamentals and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 46-63, January.
    41. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. "Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-1664, December.
    42. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-297, May.
    43. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    44. Raul Susmel & Andrew Thompson, 1997. "Volatility, storage and convenience: Evidence from natural gas markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
    45. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    46. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2015. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 4, pages 79-102, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    47. Ramsey James B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-29, November.
    48. Apostolos Serletis & Akbar Shahmoradi, 2007. "Measuring and Testing Natural Gas and Electricity Markets Volatility: Evidence from Alberta's Deregulated Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 16, pages 205-220, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    49. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 23-42, March.
    50. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    51. Apostolos Serletis, 2007. "Is There an East-West Split in North American Natural Gas Markets?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 6, pages 59-72, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    52. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    53. Gebre-Mariam, Yohannes Kebede, 2011. "Testing for unit roots, causality, cointegration, and efficiency: The case of the northwest US natural gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3489-3500.
    54. Ghoddusi, Hamed, 2016. "Integration of physical and futures prices in the US natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 229-238.
    55. Martin King & Milan Cuc, 1996. "Price Convergence in North American Natural Gas Spot Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 17(2), pages 17-42, April.
    56. repec:aen:journl:1997v18-01-a02 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Milan Hudak, 2026. "The European Gas Market Integration During 2018–2024," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 67(5), pages 3347-3430, May.
    2. Belhoula, Mohamed Malek & Mensi, Walid & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2024. "Dynamic speculation and efficiency in European natural gas markets during the COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine crises," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. repec:aen:journl:ej37-2-nick is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Sebastian Nick, 2013. "Price Formation and Intertemporal Arbitrage within a Low-Liquidity Framework: Empirical Evidence from European Natural Gas Markets," EWI Working Papers 2013-14, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    5. Jena, Sangram Keshari & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Distributional predictability between commodity spot and futures: Evidence from nonparametric causality-in-quantiles tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 615-628.
    6. Gebre-Mariam, Yohannes Kebede, 2011. "Testing for unit roots, causality, cointegration, and efficiency: The case of the northwest US natural gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3489-3500.
    7. Hudák, Milan & Čermáková, Klára & Kadeřábková, Božena & Popescu, Irina Alina & Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel, 2026. "From fragmentation to integration: Gas market convergence in Central and Eastern Europe in the aftermath of the EU energy crisis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    8. Xu Xiaojie, 2018. "Linear and Nonlinear Causality between Corn Cash and Futures Prices," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1-16, November.
    9. Alzahrani, Mohammed & Masih, Mansur & Al-Titi, Omar, 2014. "Linear and non-linear Granger causality between oil spot and futures prices: A wavelet based test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 175-201.
    10. Wei, Jiangqiao & Ma, Zhe & Wang, Anjian & Li, Pengyuan & Sun, Xiaoyan & Yuan, Xiaojing & Hao, Hongchang & Jia, Hongxiang, 2022. "Multiscale nonlinear Granger causality and time-varying effect analysis of the relationship between iron ore futures and spot prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Cagli, Efe Caglar & Taskin, Dilvin & Evrim Mandaci, Pınar, 2019. "The short- and long-run efficiency of energy, precious metals, and base metals markets: Evidence from the exponential smooth transition autoregressive models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2014. "Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 78-97, February.
    13. You‐How Go & Wee‐Yeap Lau, 2023. "What do we know about informational efficiency? Three puzzles and the new direction forward," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1489-1525, September.
    14. Stronzik, Marcus & Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Neumann, Anne, 2009. "Does the European natural gas market pass the competitive benchmark of the theory of storage? Indirect tests for three major trading points," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5432-5439, December.
    15. Nidhi Choudhary & Girish K. Nair & Harsh Purohit, 2015. "Volatility In Copper Prices In India," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-26, December.
    16. Dimpfl, Thomas & Flad, Michael & Jung, Robert C., 2017. "Price discovery in agricultural commodity markets in the presence of futures speculation," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 50-62.
    17. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gungor, Hasan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "The time-varying causality between spot and futures crude oil prices: A regime switching approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 51-71.
    18. Nazlioglu, Saban, 2011. "World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2935-2943, May.
    19. Xiaojie Xu, 2018. "Cointegration and price discovery in US corn cash and futures markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1889-1923, December.
    20. Torun, Erdost & Chang, Tzu-Pu & Chou, Ray Y., 2020. "Causal relationship between spot and futures prices with multiple time horizons: A nonparametric wavelet Granger causality test," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    21. Xiaojie Xu, 2018. "Causal structure among US corn futures and regional cash prices in the time and frequency domain," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(13), pages 2455-2480, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:334:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-022-04750-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.