Does the European natural gas market pass the competitive benchmark of the theory of storage? Indirect tests for three major trading points
This paper presents the first comparative analysis of the relationship between natural gas storage utilization and price patterns at three major European trading points. Using two indirect tests developed by (Fama and French, 1987) and (Fama and French, 1988) that are applied in other commodity markets, we impose the no arbitrage condition to model the efficiency of the natural gas market. The results reveal that while operators of European storage facilities realize seasonal arbitrage profits, substantial arbitrage potentials remain. We suggest that the indirect approach is well suited to provide market insights for periods with limited data. We find that overall market performance differs substantially from the competitive benchmark of the theory of storage.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Compte, Olivier & Jenny, Frederic & Rey, Patrick, 2002. "Capacity constraints, mergers and collusion," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 1-29, January.
- French, Kenneth R, 1986. "Detecting Spot Price Forecasts in Futures Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages S39-54, April.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January.
- Dixit, Avinash, 1979.
"The Role of Investment in Entry-Deterrence,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
140, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Hirschhausen, Christian von, 2008. "Infrastructure, regulation, investment and security of supply: A case study of the restructured US natural gas market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, March.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. " Business Cycles and the Behavior of Metals Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1075-93, December.
- Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 233.
- William A. Brock & José A. Scheinkman, 1985. "Price Setting Supergames with Capacity Constraints," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 371-382.
- Apostolos Serletis & Asghar Shahmoradi, 2007.
"Futures Trading and the Storage of North American Natural Gas,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,
in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 8, pages 82-87
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Apostolos Serletis & Asghar Shahmoradi, 2006. "Futures trading and the storage of North American natural gas," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 30(1), pages 19-26, 03.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
- Maskin, Eric & Tirole, Jean, 1988. "A Theory of Dynamic Oligopoly, II: Price Competition, Kinked Demand Curves, and Edgeworth Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 571-99, May.
- Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa & Helyette Geman, 2009.
"Modelling Electricity Prices with Forward Looking Capacity Constraints,"
Applied Mathematical Finance,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 103-122.
- Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo G. Figueroa & Helyette Geman, 2008. "Modelling Electricity Prices with Forward Looking Capacity Constraints," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0802, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Hobæk Haff, Ingrid & Lindqvist, Ola & Løland, Anders, 2008. "Risk premium in the UK natural gas forward market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2420-2440, September.
- Geman, Hélyette & Ohana, Steve, 2009. "Forward curves, scarcity and price volatility in oil and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 576-585, July.
- Neumann, Anne & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005.
"Convergence of European Spot Market Prices for Natural Gas? A Real-Time Analysis of Market Integration using the Kalman Filter,"
Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics
05/05, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
- Anne Neumann & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2006. "Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas? A real-time analysis of market integration using the Kalman Filter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 727-732.
- Carl Davidson & Raymond Deneckere, 1986. "Long-Run Competition in Capacity, Short-Run Competition in Price, and the Cournot Model," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(3), pages 404-415, Autumn.
- Marcus Stronzik & Margarethe Rammerstorfer & Anne Neumann, 2008. "Theory of Storage: An Empirical Assessment of the European Natural Gas Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 821, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Kirman, Alan P & Sobel, Matthew J, 1974. "Dynamic Oligopoly with Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(2), pages 279-87, March.
- Spulber, Daniel F, 1981. "Capacity, Output, and Sequential Entry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 503-14, June.
- Ng, Victor K & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1994. "Fundamentals and Volatility: Storage, Spreads, and the Dynamics of Metals Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 203-30, April.
- Modjtahedi, Bagher & Movassagh, Nahid, 2005. "Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 617-637, July.
- Mu, Xiaoyi, 2007. "Weather, storage, and natural gas price dynamics: Fundamentals and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 46-63, January.
- Chiou Wei, Song Zan & Zhu, Zhen, 2006. "Commodity convenience yield and risk premium determination: The case of the U.S. natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 523-534, July.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/607 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:12:p:5432-5439. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.