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Risk premium in the UK natural gas forward market

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  • Hobæk Haff, Ingrid
  • Lindqvist, Ola
  • Løland, Anders

Abstract

This report investigates the UK natural gas market, and tests whether it is a fair-game efficient forward market, using forward contracts ranging from one to five months time to delivery. The forward and spot price series are separately non-stationary, but cointegrated. Furthermore, the forward prices are biased predictors of both the future spot and the 1-month-ahead forward price. The risk premium on the forward prices is positive, as opposed to the US gas market, where the risk premium was found to be negative in similar work. Moreover, the analysis reveals that the storage model is an incomplete model for the relationship between the spot and forward prices. However, storage has a clear effect on this relationship, an effect that appears to be non-linear.

Suggested Citation

  • Hobæk Haff, Ingrid & Lindqvist, Ola & Løland, Anders, 2008. "Risk premium in the UK natural gas forward market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2420-2440, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:5:p:2420-2440
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    Cited by:

    1. Egil Ferkingstad & Anders L{o}land & Mathilde Wilhelmsen, 2011. "Causal modeling and inference for electricity markets," Papers 1110.5429, arXiv.org.
    2. Shao, Chengwu & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Colwell, David B., 2015. "A multi-factor model with time-varying and seasonal risk premiums for the natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 207-214.
    3. Beatriz Martínez & Hipòlit Torró, 2016. "Anatomy of Risk Premium in UK Natural Gas Futures," Working Papers 2016.06, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Thomas Kremser & Margarethe Rammerstorfer, 2017. "Predictive Performance and Bias: Evidence from Natural Gas Markets," Journal of Management and Sustainability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 7(2), pages 1-26, June.
    5. Chih-Chen Hsu & An-Sing Chen & Shih-Kuei Lin & Ting-Fu Chen, 2017. "The affine styled-facts price dynamics for the natural gas: evidence from daily returns and option prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 819-848, April.
    6. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2018. "Analysis of risk premium in UK natural gas futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 621-636.
    7. Devlin, Joseph & Li, Kang & Higgins, Paraic & Foley, Aoife, 2017. "Gas generation and wind power: A review of unlikely allies in the United Kingdom and Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 757-768.
    8. Stronzik, Marcus & Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Neumann, Anne, 2009. "Does the European natural gas market pass the competitive benchmark of the theory of storage? Indirect tests for three major trading points," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5432-5439, December.
    9. Ferkingstad, Egil & Løland, Anders & Wilhelmsen, Mathilde, 2011. "Causal modeling and inference for electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 404-412, May.

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