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Causal modeling and inference for electricity markets

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  • Ferkingstad, Egil
  • Løland, Anders
  • Wilhelmsen, Mathilde
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    Abstract

    How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these questions. Applying our methods to weekly Nordic and German electricity prices, and oil, gas and coal prices, with German wind power and Nordic water reservoir levels as exogenous variables, we estimate a causal model for the price dynamics, both for contemporaneous and lagged relationships. In contemporaneous time, Nordic and German electricity prices are interlinked through gas prices. In the long run, electricity prices and British gas prices adjust themselves to establish the equilibrium price level, since oil, coal, continental gas and EUR/USD are found to be weakly exogenous.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140-9883(10)00184-2
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 (May)
    Pages: 404-412

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:33:y:2011:i:3:p:404-412
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

    Keywords: Vector autoregression Vector error correction Electricity markets Causal discovery Non-Gaussianity Directed acyclic graph Non-experimental data;

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    Cited by:

    1. Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis & Stathakis, Efthimios, 2014. "Forecasting energy markets using support vector machines," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 135-142.
    2. Freitas, Carlos J. Pereira & Silva, Patrícia Pereira da, 2015. "European Union emissions trading scheme impact on the Spanish electricity price during phase II and phase III implementation," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 54-62.
    3. A Ciarreta and A Zarraga, 2015. "Analysis of mean and volatility price transmissions in the MIBEL and EPEX electricity spot markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    4. Thoenes, Stefan, 2011. "Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011," EWI Working Papers 2011-6, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    5. Moutinho, Victor & Vieira, Joel & Carrizo Moreira, António, 2011. "The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5898-5908, October.
    6. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick & Husmann, Sven, 2015. "Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 430-444.
    7. Lindström, Erik & Regland, Fredrik, 2012. "Modeling extreme dependence between European electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 899-904.
    8. He, Yongxiu & Wang, Bing & Wang, Jianhui & Xiong, Wei & Xia, Tian, 2013. "Correlation between Chinese and international energy prices based on a HP filter and time difference analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 898-909.
    9. de Menezes, Lilian M. & Houllier, Melanie A. & Tamvakis, Michael, 2016. "Time-varying convergence in European electricity spot markets and their association with carbon and fuel prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 613-627.
    10. Thomas Brenner & Marco Capasso & Matthias Duschl & Koen Frenken & Tania Treibich, 2015. "Causal Relations between Knowledge-Intensive Business Services and Regional Employment Growth," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1534, Utrecht University, Section of Economic Geography, revised Oct 2015.
    11. Stefan Thoenes, 2014. "Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    12. Ciarreta Antuñano, Aitor & Zárraga Alonso, Ainhoa, 2012. "Analysis of volatility transmissions in integrated and interconnected markets: The case of the Iberian and French markets," BILTOKI 9184, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
    13. Florian Ziel & Rick Steinert & Sven Husmann, 2015. "Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets," Papers 1501.00818, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2015.

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