Price convergence and information efficiency in German natural gas markets
In 2007, Germany changed network access regulation in the natural gas sector and introduced a so-called entry-exit system. The re-regulation’s spot market effects remain to be examined. We use cointegration analysis and a state space model with time-varying coefficients to study the development of natural gas spot prices in the two major trading hubs in Germany and the interlinked Dutch spot market. To analyse information efficiency in more detail, the state space model is extended to an error correction model. Overall, our results suggest a reasonable degree of price convergence between the corresponding hubs. However, allowing for time-variant adjustment processes, the remaining price differentials are only partly explained by transportation costs, indicating capacity constraints. Nonetheless, market efficiency in terms of information processing has increased considerably among Germany and The Netherlands.
|Date of creation:||19 Mar 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Vogelsanger Str. 321, Alte Wagenfabrik, 50827 Köln|
Phone: ++ 49 (0) 221 277 29 100
Fax: ++ 49 (0) 221 277 29 400
Web page: http://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Neumann, Anne & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005.
"Convergence of European Spot Market Prices for Natural Gas? A Real-Time Analysis of Market Integration using the Kalman Filter,"
Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics
05/05, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
- Anne Neumann & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2006. "Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas? A real-time analysis of market integration using the Kalman Filter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 727-732.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Zachmann, Georg, 2008. "Electricity wholesale market prices in Europe: Convergence?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1659-1671, July.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?,"
8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Christopher B. Barrett, 1996. "Market Analysis Methods: Are Our Enriched Toolkits Well Suited to Enlivened Markets?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 825-829.
- Panagiotidis, Theodore & Rutledge, Emilie, 2007. "Oil and gas markets in the UK: Evidence from a cointegrating approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 329-347, March.
- Bob Baulch, 1997. "Testing for food market integration revisited," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 512-534.
- Guillaume L'Hegaret & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2004.
"International Market Integration for Natural Gas? A Cointegration Analysis of Prices in Europe, North America and Japan,"
0402, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Siliverstovs, Boriss & L'Hegaret, Guillaume & Neumann, Anne & von Hirschhausen, Christian, 2005. "International market integration for natural gas? A cointegration analysis of prices in Europe, North America and Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 603-615, July.
- Guillaume L¿Hégaret & Boriss Siliverstovs & Anne Neumann & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2003. "International Market Integration for Natural Gas?: A Cointegration Analysis of Prices in Europe, North America and Japan," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 393, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- W. David Walls, 1994. "Price Convergence Across Natural Gas Fields and City Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 37-48.
- De Vany, Arthur & Walls, W. David, 1993.
"Pipeline Access and Market Integration in the Natural Gas Industry: Evidence from Cointegration Tests,"
University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers
qt8368m144, University of California Transportation Center.
- Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 1993. "Pipeline Access and Market Integration in the Natural Gas Industry: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-20.
- Asche, Frank & Osmundsen, Petter & Tveteras, Ragnar, 2002.
"European market integration for gas? Volume flexibility and political risk,"
Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 249-265, May.
- Frank Asche & Petter Osmundsen & Ragnar Tveterås, 2000. "European Market Integration for Gas? Volume Flexibility and Political Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 358, CESifo Group Munich.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Serletis, Apostolos, 1997.
"Is there an East-West split in North-American natural gas markets?,"
1746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Apostolos Serletis, 1997. "Is There an East-West Split in North American Natural Gas Markets?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 47-62.
- Serletis, Apostolos & Rangel-Ruiz, Ricardo, 2004. "Testing for common features in North American energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 401-414, May.
- Andrew N. Kleit, 2001. "Are Regional Oil Markets Growing Closer Together?: An Arbitrage Cost Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-15.
- Anne Neumann, 2009.
"Linking Natural Gas Markets - Is LNG Doing its Job?,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 187-200.
- Anne Neumann, 2008. "Linking Natural Gas Markets: Is LNG Doing Its Job?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 822, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Bob Baulch, 1997. "Transfer Costs, Spatial Arbitrage, and Testing for Food Market Integration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 477-487.
- De Vany, A. & Walls, W.D., 1994. "The Law of One Price in a Network: Arbitrage and Price Dynamics in Natural Gas City Gate Markets," Papers 93-94-17, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
- Peter R. Hartley & Kenneth B Medlock III & Jennifer E. Rosthal, 2008. "The Relationship of Natural Gas to Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 47-66.
- Christopher B. Barrett & Jau Rong Li, 2002. "Distinguishing between Equilibrium and Integration in Spatial Price Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 292-307.
- John Cuddington & Zhongmin Wang, 2006. "Assessing the Degree of Spot Market Integration for U.S. Natural Gas: Evidence from Daily Price Data," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 195-210, 03.
- Frank Asche & Petter Osmundsen & Maria Sandsmark, 2006. "The UK Market for Natural Gas, Oil and Electricity: Are the Prices Decoupled?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 27-40.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2012_005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Williams)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.