IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v49y2012icp707-718.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Have oil and gas prices got separated?

Author

Listed:
  • Erdős, Péter

Abstract

This paper applies vector error correction models that show that oil and natural gas prices decoupled around 2009. Before 2009, US and UK gas prices had a long-term equilibrium with crude prices to which gas prices always reverted after exogenous shocks. Both US and UK gas prices adjusted to the crude oil price individually, and departure from the equilibrium gas price on one continent resulted in a similar departure on the other. After an exogenous shock, the adjustment between US and UK gas prices took approximately 20 weeks on average, and the convergence was mediated mainly by crude oil with a necessary condition that arbitrage across the Atlantic was possible. After 2009, however, the UK gas price has remained integrated with oil price, but the US gas price decoupled from crude oil price and the European gas price, as the Atlantic arbitrage has halted. The oversupply from shale gas production has not been mitigated by North American export, as there has been no liquefying and export capacity.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdős, Péter, 2012. "Have oil and gas prices got separated?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 707-718.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:49:y:2012:i:c:p:707-718
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.07.022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421512006039
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.07.022?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Cuddington & Zhongmin Wang, 2006. "Assessing the Degree of Spot Market Integration for U.S. Natural Gas: Evidence from Daily Price Data," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 195-210, March.
    2. Lance J. Bachmeier & James M. Griffin, 2006. "Testing for Market Integration: Crude Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 55-72.
    3. Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yucel, 2008. "What Drives Natural Gas Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 45-60.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Robinson, Terry, 2007. "Have European gas prices converged?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2347-2351, April.
    6. Apostolos Serletis & John Herbert, 2007. "The Message in North American Energy Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 13, pages 156-171, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Apostolos Serletis, 2007. "A Cointegration Analysis of Petroleum Futures Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 5, pages 46-54, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Frank Asche & Petter Osmundsen & Maria Sandsmark, 2006. "The UK Market for Natural Gas, Oil and Electricity: Are the Prices Decoupled?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 27-40.
    9. W. David Walls, 1994. "Price Convergence Across Natural Gas Fields and City Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 15(4), pages 37-48, October.
    10. Frank Asche, Petter Osmundsen, Ragnar Tveteras, 2001. "Market integration for natural gas in Europe," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 16(4), pages 300-312.
    11. Asche, Frank & Osmundsen, Petter & Tveteras, Ragnar, 2002. "European market integration for gas? Volume flexibility and political risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 249-265, May.
    12. repec:clg:wpaper:1999-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Anne Neumann & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2006. "Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas? A real-time analysis of market integration using the Kalman Filter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 727-732.
    14. Anne Neumann, 2009. "Linking Natural Gas Markets - Is LNG Doing its Job?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(1_suppl), pages 187-200, June.
    15. Stephen P. A. Brown and Mine K. Yucel, 2009. "Market Arbitrage: European and North American Natural Gas Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 167-186.
    16. Siliverstovs, Boriss & L'Hegaret, Guillaume & Neumann, Anne & von Hirschhausen, Christian, 2005. "International market integration for natural gas? A cointegration analysis of prices in Europe, North America and Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 603-615, July.
    17. Marlin King & Milan Cuc, 1996. "Price Convergence in North American Natural Gas Spot Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-42.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    19. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Rutledge, Emilie, 2007. "Oil and gas markets in the UK: Evidence from a cointegrating approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 329-347, March.
    20. Helyette Geman, 2005. "Commodities and Commodity Derivatives. Modeling and Pricing for Agriculturals, Metals and Energy," Post-Print halshs-00144182, HAL.
    21. repec:dau:papers:123456789/607 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ekaterina Dukhanina & Olivier Massol, 2017. "Spatial Integration of Natural Gas Markets A Litterature Review," Working Papers hal-03187890, HAL.
    2. Asche, Frank & Misund, Bård & Sikveland, Marius, 2013. "The relationship between spot and contract gas prices in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 212-217.
    3. Growitsch Christian & Nepal Rabindra & Stronzik Marcus, 2015. "Price Convergence and Information Efficiency in German Natural Gas Markets," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 87-103, February.
    4. Dukhanina, Ekaterina & Massol, Olivier & Lévêque, François, 2019. "Policy measures targeting a more integrated gas market: Impact of a merger of two trading zones on prices and arbitrage activity in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 583-593.
    5. Kao, Chung-Wei & Wan, Jer-Yuh, 2009. "Information transmission and market interactions across the Atlantic -- an empirical study on the natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 152-161, January.
    6. Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2012. "Toward the integration of European natural gas markets:A time-varying approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 779-790.
    7. Growitsch, Christian & Stronzik, Marcus & Nepal, Rabindra, 2010. "Integration des deutschen Gasgroßhandelsmarktes," WIK Discussion Papers 333, WIK Wissenschaftliches Institut für Infrastruktur und Kommunikationsdienste GmbH.
    8. Anne Neumann, 2009. "Linking Natural Gas Markets - Is LNG Doing its Job?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 187-200.
    9. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Polo, Michele, 2019. "Convergence of European natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 793-811.
    10. Apergis, Nicholas & Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2015. "Downstream integration of natural gas prices across U.S. states: Evidence from deregulation regime shifts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 82-92.
    11. Raymond Li, Roselyne Joyeux, and Ronald D. Ripple, 2014. "International Natural Gas market Integration," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    12. Asche, Frank & Oglend, Atle & Osmundsen, Petter, 2012. "Gas versus oil prices the impact of shale gas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 117-124.
    13. Anne Neumann & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2006. "Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas? A real-time analysis of market integration using the Kalman Filter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 727-732.
    14. Schultz, Emma & Swieringa, John, 2013. "Price discovery in European natural gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 628-634.
    15. Koenig, P., 2012. "The effect of LNG on the rleationship between UK and Continental European natural gas markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1253, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Arano, Kathleen & Velikova, Marieta, 2010. "Estimating the long-run equilibrium relationship: The case of city-gate and residential natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 901-907, July.
    17. Nick, Sebastian & Thoenes, Stefan, 2014. "What drives natural gas prices? — A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 517-527.
    18. Abdullahi Alim & Peter R. Hartley & Yihui Lan, 2018. "Asian Spot Prices for LNG and other Energy Commodities," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    19. Frank Asche, Atle Oglend, and Petter Osmundsen, 2017. "Modeling UK Natural Gas Prices when Gas Prices Periodically Decouple from the Oil Price," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    20. Baba, Amina & Creti, Anna & Massol, Olivier, 2020. "What can be learned from the free destination option in the LNG imbroglio?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:49:y:2012:i:c:p:707-718. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.