European Market Integration for Gas? Volume Flexibility and Political Risk
Gas exports to the Continent are regulated by long term take-or-pay contracts. The contracts are described and analyzed. We thereafter examine whether the most central European gas market, the German market, is integrated. Are there substantial price differences between gas from different export countries, and do prices move together? Time series of Norwegian, Dutch and Russian gas export prices to Germany in 1990-1998 are examined. Cointegration tests show that the different border prices for gas to Germany move proportionally over time, indicating an integrated gas market (the Law of One Price holds). We find differences in mean prices, with Russian gas being sold at prices systematically lower than Dutch and Norwegian gas. Among the explanatory factors for price discrepancies are differences in volume flexibility (swing) and perceived political risk.
|Date of creation:||2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- George J. Stigler & Robert A. Sherwin, 1983.
"The Extent of the Market,"
University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State
31, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Asche, F. & Bremnes, H. & Wessells, C.R., 1998.
"Product Aggregation, Market Integration and Relationships Between Prices: an Application to World Salmon Markets,"
27/98, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
- Frank Asche & Helge Bremnes & Cathy R. Wessells, 1999. "Product Aggregation, Market Integration, and Relationships between Prices: An Application to World Salmon Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(3), pages 568-581.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- Serletis, Apostolos & Herbert, John, 1999.
"The message in North American energy prices,"
Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 471-483, October.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Lewbel, Arthur, 1996. "Aggregation without Separability: A Generalized Composite Commodity Theorem," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 524-43, June.
- Slade, Margaret E, 1986. "Exogeneity Tests of Market Boundaries Applied to Petroleum Products," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 291-303, March.
- Osmundsen, Petter, 1999. "Risk sharing and incentives in norwegian petroleum extraction," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 549-555, September.
- Gjolberg, Ole & Johnsen, Thore, 1999. "Risk management in the oil industry: can information on long-run equilibrium prices be utilized?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 517-527, December.
- W. David Walls, 1994. "Price Convergence Across Natural Gas Fields and City Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 37-48.
- Doane, Michael J & Spulber, Daniel F, 1994. "Open Access and the Evolution of the U.S. Spot Market for Natural Gas," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(2), pages 477-517, October.
- Richardson, J. David, 1978. "Some empirical evidence on commodity arbitrage and the law of one price," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 341-351, May.
- Douglas G. Sauer, 1994. "Measuring Economic Markets for Imported Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 107-124.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_358. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.