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Market Arbitrage: European and North American Natural Gas Prices

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  • Stephen P. A. Brown and Mine K. Yucel

Abstract

The development of an international market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the resulting opportunities for intercontinental arbitrage are seen as creating a world in which movements in natural gas prices are linked between continents. Increased flows of LNG into the United States and the potential sensitivity of these shipments to price differentials between Europe and North America suggests the possibility of a strengthening relationship between natural gas prices on these two continents. At the same time, there is considerable evidence linking natural gas price movements in Europe and North America to those for crude oil. Accordingly, we use a series of econometric tests to determine whether the co-movement between natural gas prices in Europe and North America is mediated through crude oil prices or is being shaped directly by gas-to-gas arbitrage.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen P. A. Brown and Mine K. Yucel, 2009. "Market Arbitrage: European and North American Natural Gas Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 167-186.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:hh-se-a11
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    Cited by:

    1. Paltsev, Sergey & Jacoby, Henry D. & Reilly, John M. & Ejaz, Qudsia J. & Morris, Jennifer & O'Sullivan, Francis & Rausch, Sebastian & Winchester, Niven & Kragha, Oghenerume, 2011. "The future of U.S. natural gas production, use, and trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5309-5321, September.
    2. Asche, Frank & Misund, Bård & Sikveland, Marius, 2013. "The relationship between spot and contract gas prices in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 212-217.
    3. Cornille, David & Meyler, Aidan, 2010. "The behaviour of consumer gas prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices," MPRA Paper 39099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Singh, Aaron & Karali, Berna & Ramirez, Octavio A., 2011. "High Price Volatility And Spillover Effects In Energy Markets," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103593, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Massol, Olivier & Tchung-Ming, Stéphane, 2010. "Cooperation among liquefied natural gas suppliers: Is rationalization the sole objective?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 933-947, July.
    6. Raymond Li, Roselyne Joyeux, and Ronald D. Ripple, 2014. "International Natural Gas market Integration," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    7. Yu, Yang & Li, Hong & Bao, Haibo, 2016. "Price dynamics and market relations in solar photovoltaic silicon feedstock trades," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 526-542.
    8. Asche, Frank & Dahl, Roy Endre & Oglend, Atle, 2013. "Value-at-Risk: Risk assessment for the portfolio of oil and gas producers," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2013/3, University of Stavanger.
    9. Potts, Todd B. & Yerger, David B., 2016. "Marcellus Shale and structural breaks in oil and gas markets: The case of Pennsylvania," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 50-58.
    10. Nick, Sebastian & Thoenes, Stefan, 2014. "What drives natural gas prices? — A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 517-527.
    11. Foster, John & Wagner, Liam & Liebman, Ariel, 2015. "Modelling the Electricity and Natural Gas Sectors for the Future Grid: Developing Co-Optimisation Platforms for Market Redesign," MPRA Paper 70114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Misund, Bård & Oglend, Atle, 2016. "Supply and demand determinants of natural gas price volatility in the U.K.: A vector autoregression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 178-189.
    13. Yu, Yang & Song, Yuhua & Bao, Haibo, 2012. "Why did the price of solar PV Si feedstock fluctuate so wildly in 2004–2009?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 572-585.
    14. Barnes, Ryan & Bosworth, Ryan, 2015. "LNG is linking regional natural gas markets: Evidence from the gravity model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 11-17.
    15. Erdős, Péter, 2012. "Have oil and gas prices got separated?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 707-718.
    16. Zhishuang Zhu & Huaming Zhang & Gege Tao & Feng Yu, 2016. "Effects of gas pricing reform on China’s price level and total output," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 167-178, November.
    17. Ghoddusi, Hamed, 2016. "Integration of physical and futures prices in the US natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 229-238.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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