IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bcu/greewp/greenwp01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Convergence of European Natural Gas Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Bastianin
  • Marzio Galeotti
  • Michele Polo

Abstract

Over the period 2015-2050 the consumption of natural gas of European OECD countries is expected to grow more than the consumption of any other energy source. Although these countries are interconnected and in most cases share a common currency, their wholesale national gas markets are highly heterogeneous. We study the determinants of cross country convergence of natural gas prices for industrial consumers in fourteen European countries. Our empirical analysis is based on the notions of pairwise, relative and convergence. We show that there is evidence of pairwise price convergence and that some key characteristics of gas markets, such as the maturity of trading hubs and the degree of interconnection, are positively associated with the existence of a convergence process. This result carries over to the notion of convergence and is robust to a number of changes in the implementation of the statistical tests. The analysis of relative convergence points to the existence of price growth convergence, while price level convergence is not supported by the data. Lastly, we assess the the short-run implications of price convergence focusing on the speed of reversion to equilibrium after a system wide shocks hits the cointegrating relation.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Michele Polo, 2018. "Convergence of European Natural Gas Prices," GREEN Working Papers 01, GREEN, Centre for Research on Geography, Resources, Environment, Energy & Networks, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcu:greewp:greenwp01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.unibocconi.it/iefe/bcu/papers/GREEN_wp01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heon Jin Park & Wayne A. Fuller, 1995. "Alternative Estimators And Unit Root Tests For The Autoregressive Process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 415-429, July.
    2. John Cuddington & Zhongmin Wang, 2006. "Assessing the Degree of Spot Market Integration for U.S. Natural Gas: Evidence from Daily Price Data," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 195-210, March.
    3. Apostolos Serletis & John Herbert, 2007. "The Message in North American Energy Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 13, pages 156-171, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Christian Growitsch & Marcus Stronzik & Rabindra Nepal, 2015. "Price Convergence and Information Efficiency in German Natural Gas Markets," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(1), pages 87-103, February.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1771-1855, November.
    6. Apergis, Nicholas & Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2015. "Downstream integration of natural gas prices across U.S. states: Evidence from deregulation regime shifts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 82-92.
    7. Lutz Kilian, 2017. "The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(6), pages 137-160, November.
    8. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
    9. Hashem Pesaran, M., 2007. "A pair-wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 312-355, May.
    10. Fischer, Christoph, 2012. "Price convergence in the EMU? Evidence from micro data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 757-776.
    11. Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 1993. "Pipeline Access and Market Integration in the Natural Gas Industry: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-20.
    12. Stephen Leybourne & Tae‐Hwan Kim & Paul Newbold, 2005. "Examination of Some More Powerful Modifications of the Dickey–Fuller Test," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 355-369, May.
    13. Miriello, Caterina & Polo, Michele, 2015. "The development of gas hubs in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 177-190.
    14. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    15. Marlin King & Milan Cuc, 1996. "Price Convergence in North American Natural Gas Spot Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-42.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3vsrea3gla9r5oaa2cle5jrqfh is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Frank Asche, Atle Oglend, and Petter Osmundsen, 2017. "Modeling UK Natural Gas Prices when Gas Prices Periodically Decouple from the Oil Price," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    18. Nick, Sebastian & Thoenes, Stefan, 2014. "What drives natural gas prices? — A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 517-527.
    19. Asche, Frank & Misund, Bård & Sikveland, Marius, 2013. "The relationship between spot and contract gas prices in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 212-217.
    20. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    21. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    22. Bunzel, Helle & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "Powerful Trend Function Tests That Are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation, With an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 381-394, October.
    23. Auping, Willem L. & Pruyt, Erik & de Jong, Sijbren & Kwakkel, Jan H., 2016. "The geopolitical impact of the shale revolution: Exploring consequences on energy prices and rentier states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 390-399.
    24. Hulshof, Daan & van der Maat, Jan-Pieter & Mulder, Machiel, 2016. "Market fundamentals, competition and natural-gas prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 480-491.
    25. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    26. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    27. Saussay, Aurélien, 2018. "Can the US shale revolution be duplicated in continental Europe? An economic analysis of European shale gas resources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 295-306.
    28. Bastianin, Andrea & Castelnovo, Paolo & Florio, Massimo, 2018. "Evaluating regulatory reform of network industries: a survey of empirical models based on categorical proxies," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 115-128.
    29. Robinson, Terry, 2007. "Have European gas prices converged?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2347-2351, April.
    30. del Valle, Aurora & Dueñas, Pablo & Wogrin, Sonja & Reneses, Javier, 2017. "A fundamental analysis on the implementation and development of virtual natural gas hubs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 520-532.
    31. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    32. Park, Haesun & Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2008. "Price interactions and discovery among natural gas spot markets in North America," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 290-302, January.
    33. Lee, Kevin C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1993. "Persistence profiles and business cycle fluctuations in a disaggregated model of U.K. output growth," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 293-322, September.
    34. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3vsrea3gla9r5oaa2cle5jrqfh is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    36. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    37. Rinaldo Brau & Raffaele Doronzo & Carlo V. Fiorio & Massimo Florio, 2010. "EU Gas Industry Reforms and Consumers’ Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 31(4), pages 167-182, October.
    38. Raymond Li & Roselyne Joyeux & Ronald D. Ripple, 2014. "International Natural Gas Market Integration," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(4), pages 159-180, October.
    39. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    40. Asche, Frank & Osmundsen, Petter & Tveteras, Ragnar, 2002. "European market integration for gas? Volume flexibility and political risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 249-265, May.
    41. repec:clg:wpaper:1999-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1998. "Parity reversion in real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 597-614, August.
    43. Anne Neumann & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2006. "Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas? A real-time analysis of market integration using the Kalman Filter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 727-732.
    44. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 1131-1147, October.
    45. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 81-156.
    46. Graham Elliott, 1998. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
    47. Koster, Hans R.A. & Ommeren, Jos van, 2015. "A shaky business: Natural gas extraction, earthquakes and house prices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 120-139.
    48. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 81-156.
    49. Martin King & Milan Cuc, 1996. "Price Convergence in North American Natural Gas Spot Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 17(2), pages 17-42, April.
    50. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith & Takashi Yamagata & Lyudmyla Hvozdyk, 2009. "Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 495-521.
    52. Rinaldo Brau & Raffaele Doronzo & Carlo V. Fiorio & Massimo Florio, 2010. "EU Gas Industry Reforms and Consumers' Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 167-182.
    53. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Michele Polo, 2018. "Convergence of European natural gas prices," IEFE Working Papers 107, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Polo, Michele, 2019. "Convergence of European natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 793-811.
    3. Ekaterina Dukhanina & Olivier Massol, 2017. "Spatial Integration of Natural Gas Markets A Litterature Review," Working Papers hal-03187890, HAL.
    4. Dukhanina, Ekaterina & Massol, Olivier & Lévêque, François, 2019. "Policy measures targeting a more integrated gas market: Impact of a merger of two trading zones on prices and arbitrage activity in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 583-593.
    5. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "On the non-convergence of energy intensities: Evidence from a pair-wise econometric approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 641-650, January.
    6. Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2012. "Toward the integration of European natural gas markets:A time-varying approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 779-790.
    7. Apergis, Nicholas & Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2015. "Downstream integration of natural gas prices across U.S. states: Evidence from deregulation regime shifts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 82-92.
    8. Chiappini, Raphaël & Jégourel, Yves & Raymond, Paul, 2019. "Towards a worldwide integrated market? New evidence on the dynamics of U.S., European and Asian natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 545-565.
    9. Le Pen, Yannick, 2011. "A pair-wise approach to output convergence between European regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 955-964, May.
    10. Olivier Massol & Albert Banal-Estanol, 2018. "Market Power and Spatial Arbitrage between Interconnected Gas Hubs," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(2_suppl), pages 67-96, December.
    11. Matsuki, Takashi, 2019. "Per capita output convergence across Asian countries: Evidence from covariate unit root test with an endogenous structural break," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 99-118.
    12. Ikeno, Hidehiro, 2014. "Long-run analysis on convergence of Japanese local price levels: A pairwise approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 390-397.
    13. Domingo Rodríguez Benavides & Abigail Rodríguez Nava, 2019. "Convergencia de los precios locales en México: un enfoque de pruebas entre pares/Convergence of local prices in Mexico: A pairwise approach," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 34(2), pages 309-332.
    14. Joseph Nyangon & John Byrne & Job Taminiau, 2017. "An assessment of price convergence between natural gas and solar photovoltaic in the U.S. electricity market," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), May.
    15. Cassetta, Ernesto & Nava, Consuelo R. & Zoia, Maria Grazia, 2022. "EU electricity market integration and cross-country convergence in residential and industrial end-user prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    16. Erdős, Péter, 2012. "Have oil and gas prices got separated?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 707-718.
    17. Growitsch Christian & Nepal Rabindra & Stronzik Marcus, 2015. "Price Convergence and Information Efficiency in German Natural Gas Markets," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 87-103, February.
    18. Raymond Li, Roselyne Joyeux, and Ronald D. Ripple, 2014. "International Natural Gas market Integration," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    19. Abdullahi Alim & Peter R. Hartley & Yihui Lan, 2018. "Asian Spot Prices for LNG and other Energy Commodities," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(1), pages 123-142, January.
    20. Silva Lopes, Artur, 2021. "Non-convergent incomes with a new DF-Fourier test: most likely you go your way (and I'll go mine)," MPRA Paper 120171, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Oct 2023.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    convergence; natural gas price; trading hub; convergence; relative convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcu:greewp:greenwp01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Carlotta Milani (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eabocit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.