IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v80y2015icp120-139.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A shaky business: Natural gas extraction, earthquakes and house prices

Author

Listed:
  • Koster, Hans R.A.
  • Ommeren, Jos van

Abstract

The production of natural gas is strongly increasing around the world. Long-run negative external effects of extraction are understudied and often ignored in (social) cost-benefit analyses. One important example is that natural gas extraction leads to soil subsidence and subsequent induced earthquakes that may occur only after a couple of decades. We show that induced earthquakes that are noticeable to residents generate substantial non-monetary economic effects, as measured by their effects on house prices, also when house owners are fully compensated for damage to their houses. To address the issue that earthquakes do not occur randomly over space, we use temporal variation in the occurrence of noticeable earthquakes while controlling for the occurrence of earthquakes that cannot be felt by house owners. We find that earthquakes that are noticeable with peak ground velocities of above half a cm/s lead to price decreases of 1.9 percent. The total non-monetary costs of induced earthquakes for Groningen are about €170 million (about €600 per household). These results indicate that the non-monetary costs are in the same order of magnitude as the monetary damage costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Koster, Hans R.A. & Ommeren, Jos van, 2015. "A shaky business: Natural gas extraction, earthquakes and house prices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 120-139.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:80:y:2015:i:c:p:120-139
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.08.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292115001282
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.08.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jos Van Ommeren & Derk Wentink, 2012. "The (Hidden) Cost Of Employer Parking Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 965-978, August.
    2. Gilles Duranton & Henry G. Overman, 2005. "Testing for Localization Using Micro-Geographic Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(4), pages 1077-1106.
    3. Dröes, Martijn I. & Koster, Hans R.A., 2016. "Renewable energy and negative externalities: The effect of wind turbines on house prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 121-141.
    4. Gilles Duranton & Henry G. Overman, 2008. "Exploring The Detailed Location Patterns Of U.K. Manufacturing Industries Using Microgeographic Data," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 213-243, February.
    5. Kurt J. Beron & James C. Murdoch & Mark A. Thayer & Wim P. M. Vijverberg, 1997. "An Analysis of the Housing Market before and after the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 73(1), pages 101-113.
    6. Lucija Muehlenbachs & Elisheba Spiller & Christopher Timmins, 2012. "Shale Gas Development and Property Values: Differences across Drinking Water Sources," NBER Working Papers 18390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Naoi, Michio & Seko, Miki & Sumita, Kazuto, 2009. "Earthquake risk and housing prices in Japan: Evidence before and after massive earthquakes," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 658-669, November.
    8. Nakagawa, Masayuki & Saito, Makoto & Yamaga, Hisaki, 2007. "Earthquake risk and housing rents: Evidence from the Tokyo Metropolitan Area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 87-99, January.
    9. Brookshire, David S & Thayer. Mark A & Tschirhart, John & Schulze, William D, 1985. "A Test of the Expected Utility Model: Evidence from Earthquake Risks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 369-389, April.
    10. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    11. Lucas W. Davis, 2011. "The Effect of Power Plants on Local Housing Values and Rents," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1391-1402, November.
    12. Gawande, Kishore & Jenkins-Smith, Hank, 2001. "Nuclear Waste Transport and Residential Property Values: Estimating the Effects of Perceived Risks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 207-233, September.
    13. Yih-Min Wu & Nai-Chi Hsiao & Ta-Liang Teng, 2004. "Relationships between Strong Ground Motion Peak Values and Seismic Loss during the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan Earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 32(3), pages 357-373, July.
    14. Sathya Gopalakrishnan & H. Allen Klaiber, 2014. "Is the Shale Energy Boom a Bust for Nearby Residents? Evidence from Housing Values in Pennsylvania," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(1), pages 43-66.
    15. Lang, Corey & Opaluch, James J. & Sfinarolakis, George, 2014. "The windy city: Property value impacts of wind turbines in an urban setting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 413-421.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Johnsen, Reid & LaRiviere, Jacob & Wolff, Hendrik, 2016. "Estimating Indirect Benefits: Fracking, Coal and Air Pollution," IZA Discussion Papers 10170, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Niek Mouter & Paul Koster & Thijs Dekker, 2019. "An introduction to Participatory Value Evaluation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-024/V, Tinbergen Institute, revised 15 Dec 2019.
    3. Holz, Franziska & Brauers, Hanna & Richter, Philipp M. & Roobeek, Thorsten, 2017. "Shaking Dutch grounds won’t shatter the European gas market," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 64, pages 520-529.
    4. Dröes, Martijn I. & Koster, Hans R.A., 2016. "Renewable energy and negative externalities: The effect of wind turbines on house prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 121-141.
    5. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Polo, Michele, 2019. "Convergence of European natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 793-811.
    6. Stephan Heblich, 2019. "Ist Angst ein guter Ratgeber? [Fear is not a good advisor]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 5(1), pages 89-94, November.
    7. Duran, Nicolas & Elhorst, J. Paul, 2017. "A Spatio-temporal-similarity and Common Factor Approach of Individual Housing Prices," Research Report 2018007-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    8. Wesley Burnett, J. & Mothorpe, Christopher, 2021. "Human-induced earthquakes, risk salience, and housing values," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    9. Gibbons, Stephen & Heblich, Stephan & Timmins, Christopher, 2021. "Market tremors: Shale gas exploration, earthquakes, and their impact on house prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    10. Joséphine Süptitz & Christian Schlereth, 2017. "Fracking: Messung der gesellschaftlichen Akzeptanz und der Wirkung akzeptanzsteigernder Maßnahmen [Fracking: Measuring Social Acceptance and the Effect of Acceptance Increasing Measures]," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 405-439, November.
    11. Woerdman, Edwin & Dulleman, Minne, 2018. "Tradable earthquake certificates," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 370-376.
    12. Steve Gibbons & Stephan Heblich & Esther Lho & Christopher Timmins, 2016. "Fear of Fracking? The Impact of the Shale Gas Exploration on House Prices in Britain," SERC Discussion Papers 0207, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. Suphi Sen & Dewy Verhoeven & Hans-Peter Weikard, 2023. "Sinking Land: Optimal Control of Subsidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 10683, CESifo.
    14. S. Kok & A. L. Costa, 2021. "Framework for economic cost assessment of land subsidence," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 1931-1949, April.
    15. Xu, Minhong & Xu, Yilan, 2023. "Do non-damaging earthquakes shake mortgage lenders' risk perception?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    16. Diemer, Andreas, 2020. "Spatial diffusion of local economic shocks in social networks: evidence from the US fracking boom," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105868, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Cheung, Ron & Wetherell, Daniel & Whitaker, Stephan, 2018. "Induced earthquakes and housing markets: Evidence from Oklahoma," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 153-166.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hans R.A. Koster & Jos N. van Ommeren, 2015. "Natural Gas Extraction, Earthquakes and House Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-038/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Cheung, Ron & Wetherell, Daniel & Whitaker, Stephan, 2018. "Induced earthquakes and housing markets: Evidence from Oklahoma," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 153-166.
    3. Wesley Burnett, J. & Mothorpe, Christopher, 2021. "Human-induced earthquakes, risk salience, and housing values," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Huang, Yi, 2021. "Salience of hazard disclosure and house prices: Evidence from Christchurch, New Zealand," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Dröes, Martijn I. & Koster, Hans R.A., 2016. "Renewable energy and negative externalities: The effect of wind turbines on house prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 121-141.
    6. Marco Modica & Roberto Zoboli & Fabrizio Meroni & Vera Pessina & Thea Squarcina & Mario Locati, 2021. "‘Near miss’ housing market response to the 2012 northern Italy earthquake: The role of housing quality and risk perception," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(11), pages 2293-2309, August.
    7. Martijn I Dröes & Hans R A Koster, 2023. "A world divided: refugee centers, house prices and household preferences," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 51-90.
    8. Mizuki Kawabata & Michio Naoi & Shohei Yasuda, 2022. "Earthquake risk reduction and residential land prices in Tokyo," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Nicolás Durán & J. Paul Elhorst, 2023. "Induced earthquakes and house prices: the role of spatiotemporal and global effects," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 157-183, April.
    10. Singh, Ruchi, 2019. "Seismic risk and house prices: Evidence from earthquake fault zoning," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 187-209.
    11. Ferreira, Susana & Liu, Haiyan & Brewer, Brady, 2018. "The housing market impacts of wastewater injection induced seismicity risk," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 251-269.
    12. Masako Ikefuji & Roger J. A. Laeven & Jan R. Magnus & Yuan Yue, 2022. "Earthquake Risk Embedded in Property Prices: Evidence From Five Japanese Cities," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 117(537), pages 82-93, January.
    13. Hidano, Noboru & Hoshino, Tadao & Sugiura, Ayako, 2015. "The effect of seismic hazard risk information on property prices: Evidence from a spatial regression discontinuity design," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 113-122.
    14. Marco Modica & Roberto Zoboli & Fabrizio Meroni & Vera Pessina & Thea Squarcina & Mario Locati, 2016. "Housing Market Response to 2012 Northern Italy Earthquake: The role of house quality and changing risk perception," SEEDS Working Papers 0416, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Apr 2016.
    15. Steve Gibbons & Stephan Heblich & Esther Lho & Christopher Timmins, 2016. "Fear of Fracking? The Impact of the Shale Gas Exploration on House Prices in Britain," SERC Discussion Papers 0207, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    16. Deng, Guoying & Gan, Li & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2015. "Do natural disasters cause an excessive fear of heights? Evidence from the Wenchuan earthquake," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 79-89.
    17. Ti-Ching Peng, 2021. "The effect of hazard shock and disclosure information on property and land prices: a machine-learning assessment in the case of Japan," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 41(1), pages 1-32, February.
    18. Hayato Nakanishi, 2017. "Quasi-experimental evidence for the importance of accounting for fear when evaluating catastrophic events," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 869-894, March.
    19. Carr-Harris, Andrew & Lang, Corey, 2019. "Sustainability and tourism: the effect of the United States’ first offshore wind farm on the vacation rental market," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 51-67.
    20. Modica, Marco, 2017. "Does the construction of biogas plants affect local property values?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 169-172.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural gas extraction; Earthquakes; House prices; Hedonic price analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:80:y:2015:i:c:p:120-139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.