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A shaky business: Natural gas extraction, earthquakes and house prices

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  • Koster, Hans R.A.
  • Ommeren, Jos van

Abstract

The production of natural gas is strongly increasing around the world. Long-run negative external effects of extraction are understudied and often ignored in (social) cost-benefit analyses. One important example is that natural gas extraction leads to soil subsidence and subsequent induced earthquakes that may occur only after a couple of decades. We show that induced earthquakes that are noticeable to residents generate substantial non-monetary economic effects, as measured by their effects on house prices, also when house owners are fully compensated for damage to their houses. To address the issue that earthquakes do not occur randomly over space, we use temporal variation in the occurrence of noticeable earthquakes while controlling for the occurrence of earthquakes that cannot be felt by house owners. We find that earthquakes that are noticeable with peak ground velocities of above half a cm/s lead to price decreases of 1.9 percent. The total non-monetary costs of induced earthquakes for Groningen are about €170 million (about €600 per household). These results indicate that the non-monetary costs are in the same order of magnitude as the monetary damage costs.

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  • Koster, Hans R.A. & Ommeren, Jos van, 2015. "A shaky business: Natural gas extraction, earthquakes and house prices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 120-139.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:80:y:2015:i:c:p:120-139
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.08.011
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Polo, Michele, 2019. "Convergence of European natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 793-811.
    3. Woerdman, Edwin & Dulleman, Minne, 2018. "Tradable earthquake certificates," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 370-376.
    4. Steve Gibbons & Stephan Heblich & Esther Lho & Christopher Timmins, 2016. "Fear of Fracking? The Impact of the Shale Gas Exploration on House Prices in Britain," SERC Discussion Papers 0207, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Suphi Sen & Dewy Verhoeven & Hans-Peter Weikard, 2023. "Sinking Land: Optimal Control of Subsidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 10683, CESifo.
    6. Stephan Heblich, 2019. "Ist Angst ein guter Ratgeber? [Fear is not a good advisor]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 5(1), pages 89-94, November.
    7. S. Kok & A. L. Costa, 2021. "Framework for economic cost assessment of land subsidence," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 1931-1949, April.
    8. Johnsen, Reid & LaRiviere, Jacob & Wolff, Hendrik, 2016. "Estimating Indirect Benefits: Fracking, Coal and Air Pollution," IZA Discussion Papers 10170, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Dröes, Martijn I. & Koster, Hans R.A., 2016. "Renewable energy and negative externalities: The effect of wind turbines on house prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 121-141.
    10. Holz, Franziska & Brauers, Hanna & Richter, Philipp M. & Roobeek, Thorsten, 2017. "Shaking Dutch grounds won’t shatter the European gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 520-529.
    11. Niek Mouter & Paul Koster & Thijs Dekker, 2019. "An introduction to Participatory Value Evaluation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-024/V, Tinbergen Institute, revised 15 Dec 2019.
    12. Gibbons, Stephen & Heblich, Stephan & Timmins, Christopher, 2021. "Market tremors: Shale gas exploration, earthquakes, and their impact on house prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    13. Cheung, Ron & Wetherell, Daniel & Whitaker, Stephan, 2018. "Induced earthquakes and housing markets: Evidence from Oklahoma," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 153-166.
    14. Duran, Nicolas & Elhorst, J. Paul, 2017. "A Spatio-temporal-similarity and Common Factor Approach of Individual Housing Prices," Research Report 2018007-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    15. Xu, Minhong & Xu, Yilan, 2023. "Do non-damaging earthquakes shake mortgage lenders' risk perception?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    16. Wesley Burnett, J. & Mothorpe, Christopher, 2021. "Human-induced earthquakes, risk salience, and housing values," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Diemer, Andreas, 2020. "Spatial diffusion of local economic shocks in social networks: evidence from the US fracking boom," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105868, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural gas extraction; Earthquakes; House prices; Hedonic price analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

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