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The effect of seismic hazard risk information on property prices: Evidence from a spatial regression discontinuity design

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  • Hidano, Noboru
  • Hoshino, Tadao
  • Sugiura, Ayako

Abstract

In this paper, we utilize a spatial two-dimensional regression discontinuity (RD) design to study how Tokyo's property market evaluates information on seismic hazard risk. This approach is superior to the conventional one-dimensional RD design as it is able to account for spatially heterogeneous treatment effects and reduce small-sample biases. Our data consists of residential property transactions from the 23-ward area of Tokyo. Our results show that the unit prices of residential properties in low-risk zones were between 13,970–17,380 JPY higher than those in high-risk zones depending on the type of seismic hazard risk. In addition, we find that information on seismic hazard risk does not significantly affect the prices of newly constructed apartments, which are more resistant to earthquake damage than older residences.

Suggested Citation

  • Hidano, Noboru & Hoshino, Tadao & Sugiura, Ayako, 2015. "The effect of seismic hazard risk information on property prices: Evidence from a spatial regression discontinuity design," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 113-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:53:y:2015:i:c:p:113-122
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2015.05.005
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    2. Abbie A. Rogers & Fiona L. Dempster & Jacob I. Hawkins & Robert J. Johnston & Peter C. Boxall & John Rolfe & Marit E. Kragt & Michael P. Burton & David J. Pannell, 2019. "Valuing non-market economic impacts from natural hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(2), pages 1131-1161, November.
    3. Gary Cornwall & Beau Sauley, 2021. "Indirect effects and causal inference: reconsidering regression discontinuity," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-28, December.
    4. Kono, Tatsuhito & Tatano, Hirokazu & Ushiki, Kenji & Nakazono, Daisuke & Sugisawa, Fumihito, 2022. "The effects of hazard risk information on locations of firms by industry in tsunami-prone coastal areas," MPRA Paper 115412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Franco, Sofia F. & Macdonald, Jacob L., 2018. "The effects of cultural heritage on residential property values: Evidence from Lisbon, Portugal," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 35-56.
    6. Huang, Yi, 2021. "Salience of hazard disclosure and house prices: Evidence from Christchurch, New Zealand," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Ferreira, Susana & Liu, Haiyan & Brewer, Brady, 2018. "The housing market impacts of wastewater injection induced seismicity risk," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 251-269.
    8. Jean Dubé & Maha AbdelHalim & Nicolas Devaux, 2021. "Evaluating the Impact of Floods on Housing Price Using a Spatial Matching Difference-In-Differences (SM-DID) Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1, January.
    9. Ti-Ching Peng, 2021. "The effect of hazard shock and disclosure information on property and land prices: a machine-learning assessment in the case of Japan," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 41(1), pages 1-32, February.
    10. Mizuki Kawabata & Michio Naoi & Shohei Yasuda, 2022. "Earthquake risk reduction and residential land prices in Tokyo," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, December.
    11. Olga Filippova & Cuong Nguyen & Ilan Noy & Michael Rehm, 2020. "Who Cares? Future Sea Level Rise and House Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 96(2), pages 207-224.
    12. Singh, Ruchi, 2019. "Seismic risk and house prices: Evidence from earthquake fault zoning," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 187-209.
    13. Masako Ikefuji & Roger J. A. Laeven & Jan R. Magnus & Yuan Yue, 2022. "Earthquake Risk Embedded in Property Prices: Evidence From Five Japanese Cities," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 117(537), pages 82-93, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regression discontinuity design; Seismic hazard risk; Property market; Hedonic price; Quasi-experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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