Locational price spreads and the pricing of contracts for difference: Evidence from the Nordic market
In electricity markets, not only does the risk of substantial price variations over time exist, but so does the risk of price variations over space, as prices between locations can differ due to transmission congestion. To manage this risk, Contracts for Difference (CfDs), i.e., forwards on the spread between a particular area price and the (unconstrained) system price, were introduced at the Scandinavian electricity exchange Nord Pool at the end of 2000. We empirically investigate the pricing of these CfDs over the period 2001 through 2006 and find that CfD prices contain significant risk premia. Their sign and magnitude, however, differ substantially between areas and delivery periods, because areas are subject to transmission congestion to a varying extent. While the relation between risk premia and time-to-maturity is not uniform for CfDs, there is a negative relation for implied area and system forwards, which can be explained by the relative hedging demand of market participants. In addition, we find that risk premia of CfDs and implied area forwards vary systematically with the variance and skewness of the underlying spot prices. This confirms both implications of the Bessembinder and Lemmon [Bessembinder, H., Lemmon, M.L., 2002. Equilibrium pricing and optimal hedging in electricity forward markets. Journal of Finance, 57, 1347-1382] model.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Emile J. Brinkmann & Ramon Rabinovitch, 1995. "Regional Limitations on the Hedging Effectiveness of Natural Gas Futures," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 113-124.
- Richard Green, 2007. "Nodal pricing of electricity: how much does it cost to get it wrong?," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 125-149, April.
- Fred Espen Benth & Alvaro Cartea & Ruediger Kiesel, 2006.
"Pricing Forward Contracts in Power Markets by the Certainty Equivalence Principle: Explaining the Sign of the Market Risk Premium,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0611, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Benth, Fred Espen & Cartea, Álvaro & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2008. "Pricing forward contracts in power markets by the certainty equivalence principle: Explaining the sign of the market risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2006-2021, October.
- Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006.
"A regime switching long memory model for electricity prices,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 349-376.
- Niels Haldrup & Morten O. Nielsen, 2004. "A Regime Switching Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Economics Working Papers 2004-2, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Hogan, William W, 1992. "Contract Networks for Electric Power Transmission," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 211-42, September.
- Nils-Henrik M. von der Fehr, Eirik S. Amundsen and Lars Bergman, 2005.
"The Nordic Market: Signs of Stress?,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 71-98.
- M. von der Fehr, Nils-Henrik & Amundsen, Eirik S. & Bergman, Lars, 2004. "The Nordic Market: Signs Of Stress?," Working Papers in Economics 15/04, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
- von der Fehr, N-H.M. & Amundsen , E.S. & Bergman, L., 2005. "The Nordic Market: Signs of Stress?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0525, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Diko Pavel & Lawford Steve & Limpens Valerie, 2006. "Risk Premia in Electricity Forward Prices," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, September.
- Chao, Hung-Po & Peck, Stephen, 1996. "A Market Mechanism for Electric Power Transmission," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 25-59, July.
- Haldrup; Niels & Morten Oerregaard Nielsen, 2005.
"Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices,"
Economics Working Papers
2005-18, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Haldrup Niels & Nielsen Morten Ø., 2006. "Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, September.
- Andrew C. Worthington & Adam Kay-Spratley & Helen Higgs, 2002.
"Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: A multivariate GARCH analysis,"
School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series
114, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
- Worthington, Andrew & Kay-Spratley, Adam & Higgs, Helen, 2005. "Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 337-350, March.
- Moulton, Jonathan S., 2005. "California electricity futures: the NYMEX experience," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 181-194, January.
- De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 1999. "Cointegration analysis of spot electricity prices: insights on transmission efficiency in the western US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 435-448, October.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Ashley W. Wang, 2004. "Electricity Forward Prices: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1877-1900, 08.
- Kristiansen, T., 2004. "Pricing of Contracts for Difference in the Nordic market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1075-1085, June.
- Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
- Kamara, Avraham & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. " Optimal Hedging in Futures Markets with Multiple Delivery Specifications," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1007-21, September.
- Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Intra-day and regime-switching dynamics in electricity price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1776-1797, July.
- Dusak, Katherine, 1973. "Futures Trading and Investor Returns: An Investigation of Commodity Market Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1387-1406, Nov.-Dec..
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:31:y:2009:i:2:p:257-268. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.