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Practical stochastic modeling of electricity prices

Author

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  • Michel Culot
  • Valérie Goffin
  • Steve Lawford
  • Sébastien de Menten and Yves Smeers

Abstract

ABSTRACT We develop a flexible multifactor stochastic model with three diffusive and three spike regimes, for daily spot and forward electricity. The model captures various stylized features of power prices, including mean reversion and seasonal patterns and short-lived spikes. We estimate parameters using a practical two-step procedure that combines precalibration of deterministic elements and spikes and state-space estimation of diffusive factors. We use several results on affine jump diffusions to combine the spike and diffusive components, and to provide convenient closed-form solutions for important power derivatives. We also propose a simple nonparametric model for hourly spot prices, based on hourly profile sampling from historical data. This model can reproduce complicated intraday patterns. We illustrate the performance of the daily and hourly models using data from the Amsterdam Power Exchange.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Culot & Valérie Goffin & Steve Lawford & Sébastien de Menten and Yves Smeers, . "Practical stochastic modeling of electricity prices," Journal of Energy Markets, Journal of Energy Markets.
    • Handle: RePEc:rsk:journ2:2253332
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    2. Deschatre, Thomas & Féron, Olivier & Gruet, Pierre, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Bannör, Karl & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Nazarova, Anna & Scherer, Matthias, 2016. "Parametric model risk and power plant valuation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 423-434.
    4. Ioannidis, Filippos & Kosmidou, Kyriaki & Savva, Christos & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2021. "Electricity pricing using a periodic GARCH model with conditional skewness and kurtosis components," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    5. Houda Ghamlouch & Mitra Fouladirad & Antoine Grall, 2019. "The use of real option in condition-based maintenance scheduling for wind turbines with production and deterioration uncertainties," Post-Print hal-02365402, HAL.
    6. Prabakaran, Sellamuthu & Garcia, Isabel C. & Mora, Jose U., 2020. "A temperature stochastic model for option pricing and its impacts on the electricity market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 58-77.
    7. Ghamlouch, Houda & Fouladirad, Mitra & Grall, Antoine, 2019. "The use of real option in condition-based maintenance scheduling for wind turbines with production and deterioration uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 614-623.

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