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Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market

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  • Weron, Rafał
  • Zator, Michał

Abstract

This work discusses potential pitfalls of applying linear regression models for explaining the relationship between spot and futures prices in electricity markets, in particular, the bias coming from the simultaneity problem, the effect of correlated measurement errors and the impact of seasonality on the regression results. Studying a 13-year long (1998–2010) price series of spot and futures prices at Nord Pool and employing regression models with GARCH residuals, we show that the impact of the water reservoir level on the risk premium is positive, which is to be expected, but contradicts the results of Botterud et al. (2010). We also show that after taking into account the seasonality of the water level, the storage cost theory proposed by Botterud et al. (2010) to explain the behavior of convenience yield has only limited support in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Weron, Rafał & Zator, Michał, 2014. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 178-190.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:44:y:2014:i:c:p:178-190
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.03.007
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marius Paschen, 2016. "The effect of intermittent renewable supply on the forward premium in German electricity markets," Working Papers V-397-16, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2016.
    2. Spodniak, Petr & Bertsch, Valentin, 2017. "Determinants of power spreads in electricity futures markets: A multinational analysis," Papers WP580, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Hagen, Liv Aune & Nygård, Maria Tandberg & Smith-Sivertsen, Ragnhild & Sollie, Johan M., 2015. "The overnight risk premium in electricity forward contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 293-300.
    4. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    5. Rick Steinert & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Short- to Mid-term Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Using Futures," Papers 1801.10583, arXiv.org.
    6. Pawel Maryniak & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Carbon pricing, forward risk premiums and pass-through rates in Australian electricity futures markets," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/10, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    7. Asche, Frank & Misund, Bård & Oglend, Atle, 2016. "Determinants of the Atlantic salmon futures risk premium," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 6-17.
    8. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2016. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 228-235.
    9. Stefan Trück & Rafał Weron, 2016. "Convenience Yields and Risk Premiums in the EU‐ETS—Evidence from the Kyoto Commitment Period," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 587-611, June.
    10. Lindström, Erik & Norén, Vicke & Madsen, Henrik, 2015. "Consumption management in the Nord Pool region: A stability analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 239-246.
    11. repec:eee:eneeco:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:222-237 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Benth, Fred Espen & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2016. "A Structural Model for Electricity Forward Prices," Working Papers on Finance 1611, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    13. repec:eee:enepol:v:107:y:2017:i:c:p:109-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Niu, Shilei & Insley, Margaret, 2016. "An options pricing approach to ramping rate restrictions at hydro power plants," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 25-52.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity market; Spot and futures prices; Risk premium; Convenience yield;

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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