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Electricity Futures Prices: Indirect Storability, Expectations, and Risk Premiums


  • Huisman, Ronald
  • Kilic, Mehtap


The goal of this paper is to examine to what extent electricity futures prices contain expected risk premiums or have power to forecast spot prices and whether this might be dependent on the type of electricity supply. We analyse futures prices from the Dutch market, a market in which power is produced with storable fossil fuels, and futures prices from the NordPool market, where electricity is mostly produced by hydropower. We show that futures prices from markets in which electricity is predominantly produced by imperfectly storable fuels such as hydro, wind and solar contain information about expected changes in the spot price of electricity, whereas futures prices from markets in which electricity is predominantly produced with perfectly storable fuels contain information about both expected price changes and time-varying risk premiums. These findings provide insight in the applicability of forward price models; one cannot apply the same model to all electricity markets. Forward models for markets with imperfect indirect storability should depend heavily on price expectations and models should include time-varying risk premiums for markets with perfect indirect storability.

Suggested Citation

  • Huisman, Ronald & Kilic, Mehtap, 2012. "Electricity Futures Prices: Indirect Storability, Expectations, and Risk Premiums," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 892-898.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:4:p:892-898 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.04.008

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Werner, Dan, 2014. "Electricity Market Price Volatility: The Importance of Ramping Costs," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169619, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2013. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 13-27.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13630 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Florian Ziel & Rick Steinert & Sven Husmann, 2014. "Efficient Modeling and Forecasting of the Electricity Spot Price," Papers 1402.7027,, revised Oct 2014.
    5. Weron, Rafał & Zator, Michał, 2014. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 178-190.
    6. Edouard Jaeck & Delphine Lautier, 2014. "Samuelson hypothesis and electricity derivative markets," Post-Print hal-01655800, HAL.
    7. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14413 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Pawel Maryniak & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Carbon pricing, forward risk premiums and pass-through rates in Australian electricity futures markets," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/10, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    9. Jaeck, Edouard & Lautier, Delphine, 2016. "Volatility in electricity derivative markets: The Samuelson effect revisited," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 300-313.
    10. repec:eee:eneeco:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:64-74 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Sanda, Gaute Egeland & Olsen, Eirik Tandberg & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2013. "Selective hedging in hydro-based electricity companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 326-338.
    12. N. Gülpınar & F. Oliveira, 2014. "Analysis of relationship between forward and spot markets in oligopolies under demand and cost uncertainties," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 267-283, July.
    13. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick & Husmann, Sven, 2015. "Efficient modeling and forecasting of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 98-111.
    14. George Daskalakis, Lazaros Symeonidis, Raphael N. Markellos, 2015. "Electricity futures prices in an emissions constrained economy: Evidence from European power markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).


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