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The futures and forward price differential in the Nordic electricity market

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  • Wimschulte, Jens

Abstract

This note investigates price differentials between electricity forwards and portfolios of short-term futures with identical delivery periods at the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool). Since both contracts are traded at the same exchange, there is no influence of, for example, different market microstructure and default risk when examining the effect of the marking-to-market of futures on the price differential. Although the prices of the futures portfolios are, on average, below the corresponding forward prices, these price differentials are, on average, not statistically significant and not economically significant when taking transaction costs into account. Given the characteristics of the electricity contracts under observation, this is consistent with the predictions of the Cox et al. (1981) model and indicates efficient pricing in the Nord Pool forward market in contrast to previous results.

Suggested Citation

  • Wimschulte, Jens, 2010. "The futures and forward price differential in the Nordic electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4731-4733, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:8:p:4731-4733
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    1. Robert A. JARROW & George S. OLDFIELD, 2008. "Forward Contracts And Futures Contracts," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 11, pages 237-246, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Spodniak, Petr & Collan, Mikael, 2018. "Forward risk premia in long-term transmission rights: The case of electricity price area differentials (EPAD) in the Nordic electricity market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 194-206.
    2. Zhang Yue & Arash Farnoosh, 2018. "Analysing the Dynamic Impact of Electricity Futures on Revenue and Risks of Renewable Energy in China," Working Papers hal-03188814, HAL.
    3. Huisman, Ronald & Kilic, Mehtap, 2012. "Electricity Futures Prices: Indirect Storability, Expectations, and Risk Premiums," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 892-898.
    4. Zhang, Yue & Farnoosh, Arash, 2019. "Analyzing the dynamic impact of electricity futures on revenue and risk of renewable energy in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 678-690.
    5. Stanescu, Silvia & Tunaru, Radu & Candradewi, Made Reina, 2014. "Forward–futures price differences in the UK commercial property market: Arbitrage and marking-to-model explanations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 177-188.
    6. Frestad, Dennis, 2012. "Liquidity and dirty hedging in the Nordic electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1341-1355.
    7. Farshid Mehrdoust & Idin Noorani & Wei Xu, 2023. "Uncertain energy model for electricity and gas futures with application in spark-spread option price," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 123-148, March.

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    Keywords

    Electricity Forwards Futures;

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