IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fth/nystfi/98-068.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Empirical Examination of the Convexity Bias in the Pricing of Interest Rate Swaps

Author

Listed:
  • Marti G. Subrahmanyam
  • Anurag Gupta

Abstract

This paper examines the convexity bias introduced by pricing interest rate swaps off the Eurocurrency futures curve and the incorporation of this bias in prices over time. The convexity bias arises because of the difference between a futures versus a forward contract on interest rates, since the payoff to the latter is non-linear in interest rates. Using daily data from 1987-1996, the differences between market swap rates and the swap rates implied from Eurocurrency futures prices are studied for the four major interest rate swaps markets - $, ',', and DM - and implied rates cannot be explained by default risk differences, term structure effects, liquidity differences or information asymmetries between the swaps and the futures markets. Using a calibrated term structure model, the theoretical value of the convexity bias is found to be comparable to the empirically observed spread. This is evidence of mispricing of swap rates during the earlier years of the study, with a gradual elimination of that mispricing by incorporation of a convexity adjustment in swap pricing over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Marti G. Subrahmanyam & Anurag Gupta, 1998. "An Empirical Examination of the Convexity Bias in the Pricing of Interest Rate Swaps," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-068, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:nystfi:98-068
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rendleman, Richard J, Jr & Carabini, Christopher E, 1979. "The Efficiency of the Treasury Bill Futures Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(4), pages 895-914, September.
    2. McCulloch, J Huston, 1971. "Measuring the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 19-31, January.
    3. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1990. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Discrete Time Approximation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 419-440, December.
    4. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Kamara, A., 1988. "Trading Structures And Asset Pricing: Evidence From The Treasury Bill Markets," Papers 169, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
    7. Richard, Scott F. & Sundaresan, M., 1981. "A continuous time equilibrium model of forward prices and futures prices in a multigood economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 347-371, December.
    8. Cooper, Ian A & Mello, Antonio S, 1991. "The Default Risk of Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 597-620, June.
    9. Robert A. Jarrow & Arkadev Chatterjea, 2019. "Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: An Introduction to Derivative Securities, Financial Markets, and Risk Management, chapter 2, pages 22-52, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Grinblatt, Mark & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1996. "Relative Pricing of Eurodollar Features and Forward Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1499-1522, September.
    11. Litzenberger, Robert H, 1992. "Swaps: Plain and Fanciful," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 831-850, July.
    12. Robert A. JARROW & George S. OLDFIELD, 2008. "Forward Contracts And Futures Contracts," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 11, pages 237-246, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    14. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    15. Sundaresan, Suresh, 1991. "Futures Prices on Yields, Forward Prices, and Implied Forward Prices from Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 409-424, September.
    16. French, Kenneth R., 1983. "A comparison of futures and forward prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 311-342, November.
    17. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
    18. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Rentzler, Joel, 1984. "Intra-Day Tests of the Efficiency of the Treasury Bill Futures Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(1), pages 129-137, February.
    19. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1993. "One-Factor Interest-Rate Models and the Valuation of Interest-Rate Derivative Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 235-254, June.
    20. Robert W. Kolb & Gerald D. Gay, 1985. "A Pricing Anomaly In Treasury Bill Futures," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 8(2), pages 157-167, June.
    21. Minton, Bernadette A., 1997. "An empirical examination of basic valuation models for plain vanilla U.S. interest rate swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 251-277, May.
    22. Meulbroek, Lisa, 1992. "A Comparison of Forward and Futures Prices of an Interest Rate-Sensitive Financial Asset," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 381-396, March.
    23. Avraham Kamara, 1988. "Market Trading Structures and Asset Pricing: Evidence from the Treasury- Bill Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 357-375.
    24. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
    25. Sun, Tong-sheng & Sundaresan, Suresh & Wang, Ching, 1993. "Interest rate swaps: An empirical investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 77-99, August.
    26. Duffie, Darrell & Huang, Ming, 1996. "Swap Rates and Credit Quality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 921-949, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    2. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    3. Raimbourg, Philippe & Zimmermann, Paul, 2022. "Is normal backwardation normal? Valuing financial futures with a local index-rate covariance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 351-367.
    4. Poskitt, Russell, 2008. "Interest rate futures and forwards: Evidence from the sterling futures and FRA markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 399-412, December.
    5. Mark Grinblatt, 2001. "An Analytic Solution for Interest Rate Swap Spreads," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 113-149, September.
    6. Philippe Raimbourg & Paul Zimmermann, 2022. "Is normal backwardation normal? Valuing financial futures with a local index-rate covariance," Post-Print hal-04011013, HAL.
    7. João Pedro Vidal Nunes & Luís Alberto Ferreira De Oliveira, 2007. "Multifactor and analytical valuation of treasury bond futures with an embedded quality option," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 275-303, March.
    8. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Poskitt, Russell, 2008. "The truth about interest rate futures and forwards: Evidence from high frequency data," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 319-336.
    10. Lin, James Wuh, 1996. "Arbitrage, carrying costs, and inflation: A reexamination of market efficiency in treasury bill futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 207-222.
    11. R.C. Stapleton & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 1999. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate-Futures Prices," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-045, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    12. Fergusson, Kevin, 2020. "Less-Expensive Valuation And Reserving Of Long-Dated Variable Annuities When Interest Rates And Mortality Rates Are Stochastic," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 381-417, May.
    13. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    14. repec:uts:finphd:40 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Antulio N. Bomfim, 2003. "Counterparty credit risk in interest rate swaps during times of market stress," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Oldrich Alfons Vasicek & Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2021. "Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Review, Trends, and Perspectives," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(2), pages 1-28, Abril - J.
    17. Liu, Jun & Longstaff, Francis A. & Mandell, Ravit E., 2000. "The Market Price of Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Swap Spreads," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt0zw4f9w6, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    18. Juan M. Moraleda & Ton Vorst, 1996. "The Valuation of Interest Rate Derivatives: Empirical Evidence from the Spanish Market," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 96-170/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    19. Shane Miller, 2007. "Pricing of Contingent Claims Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2007.
    20. Wimschulte, Jens, 2010. "The futures and forward price differential in the Nordic electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4731-4733, August.
    21. Kevin John Fergusson, 2018. "Less-Expensive Pricing and Hedging of Extreme-Maturity Interest Rate Derivatives and Equity Index Options Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2018.
    22. Shane Miller, 2007. "Pricing of Contingent Claims Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 25, July-Dece.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fth:nystfi:98-068. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Krichel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fdnyuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.