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Interest rate futures and forwards: Evidence from the sterling futures and FRA markets

  • Poskitt, Russell
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    This paper examines the pricing of sterling interest rate futures and forward rate agreement (FRA) contracts using a unique high frequency data set. The futures/FRA differential is close to zero with narrow dispersion, yielding limited arbitrage opportunities when synchronous data are employed. These results compare favorably with those reported in prior studies using low frequency data and implied forward rates. I also find that the information flow between the futures and FRA markets is largely contemporaneous although the futures market dominates the information transmission process in the 3-month maturity.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

    Volume (Year): 18 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 5 (December)
    Pages: 399-412

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:18:y:2008:i:5:p:399-412
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    1. Muller, Ulrich A. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V. & Schwarz, Matthias & Morgenegg, Claude, 1990. "Statistical study of foreign exchange rates, empirical evidence of a price change scaling law, and intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 1189-1208, December.
    2. Dacorogna, Michael M. & Muller, Ulrich A. & Nagler, Robert J. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V., 1993. "A geographical model for the daily and weekly seasonal volatility in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 413-438, August.
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    5. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-92.
    6. Inci, Ahmet Can & Lu, Biao, 2007. "Currency futures-spot basis and risk premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 180-197, April.
    7. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Rentzler, Joel, 1984. "Intra-Day Tests of the Efficiency of the Treasury Bill Futures Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(1), pages 129-37, February.
    8. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
    9. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
    10. Rendleman, Richard J, Jr & Carabini, Christopher E, 1979. "The Efficiency of the Treasury Bill Futures Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(4), pages 895-914, September.
    11. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
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