Wind generation and zonal-market price divergence: Evidence from Texas
The extant literature on wind generation and wholesale electricity spot prices says little about how wind generation may affect any price differences between two inter-connected sub-markets. Using extensive data from the four ERCOT zones of Texas, this paper develops a two-stage model to attack the issue. The first stage is an ordered-logit regression to identify and quantify, for example, the impact of wind generation in the West zone on the estimated probability of a positive or negative price difference between the North and West zones. The second stage is a log-linear regression model that identifies and quantifies the estimated impact of wind generation on the sizes of those positive and negative price differences. It is shown that high wind generation and low load in the wind-rich ERCOT West zone tend to lead to congestion and zonal price differences, that those differences are time-dependent, and that other factors such as movements in nuclear generation and natural-gas prices, as well as fluctuating non-West zone loads, also play a role. The results have broad implications for energy policy makers that extend well beyond the borders of Texas and, indeed, those of the United States.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard Williams, 2006. "Generalized ordered logit/partial proportional odds models for ordinal dependent variables," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 6(1), pages 58-82, March.
- Mitchell, C. & Bauknecht, D. & Connor, P.M., 2006. "Effectiveness through risk reduction: a comparison of the renewable obligation in England and Wales and the feed-in system in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-305, February.
- Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
- Niels Haldrup & Morten O. Nielsen, 2004.
"A Regime Switching Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices,"
Economics Working Papers
2004-2, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006. "A regime switching long memory model for electricity prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 349-376.
- Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
- Sioshansi, Ramteen & Hurlbut, David, 2010. "Market protocols in ERCOT and their effect on wind generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3192-3197, July.
- Woo, Chi-Keung & Horowitz, Ira & Olson, Arne & Horii, Brian & Baskette, Carmen, 2006. "Efficient frontiers for electricity procurement by an LDC with multiple purchase options," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 70-80, January.
- Paul Joskow & Edward Kahn, 2001.
"A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior in California's Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000,"
NBER Working Papers
8157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul L. Joskow & Edward Kohn, 2002. "A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior in California's Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-35.
- Joskow, P. & Edward Kahn, 2002. "A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior In California’s Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0211, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Mahone, A. & Woo, C.K. & Williams, J. & Horowitz, I., 2009. "Renewable portfolio standards and cost-effective energy-efficiency investment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 774-777, March.
- Vandezande, Leen & Meeus, Leonardo & Belmans, Ronnie & Saguan, Marcelo & Glachant, Jean-Michel, 2010. "Well-functioning balancing markets: A prerequisite for wind power integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3146-3154, July.
- Woo, Chi-Keung & Horowitz, Ira & Hoang, Khoa, 2001. "Cross hedging and forward-contract pricing of electricity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15, January.
- Woo, Chi-Keung & Karimov, Rouslan I. & Horowitz, Ira, 2004. "Managing electricity procurement cost and risk by a local distribution company," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 635-645, March.
- Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik & Zvingilaite, Erika, 2010. "Reducing the market impact of large shares of intermittent energy in Denmark," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3403-3413, July.
- Li, Y. & Flynn, P.C., 2006. "Electricity deregulation, spot price patterns and demand-side management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 908-922.
- Benth, Fred Espen & Koekebakker, Steen, 2008. "Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1116-1157, May.
- Lee, Lung-Fei, 1983. "Generalized Econometric Models with Selectivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 507-12, March.
- Kim, Ji-Hyun, 2003. "Assessing practical significance of the proportional odds assumption," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 233-239, November.
- Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
- Redl, Christian & Haas, Reinhard & Huber, Claus & Böhm, Bernhard, 2009. "Price formation in electricity forward markets and the relevance of systematic forecast errors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 356-364, May.
- Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Intra-day and regime-switching dynamics in electricity price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1776-1797, July.
- Deng, S.J. & Oren, S.S., 2006. "Electricity derivatives and risk management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 940-953.
- Neuhoff, K. & de Vries, L., 2004.
"'Insufficient Incentives for Investment in Electricity Generation’,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0428, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Neuhoff, Karsten & De Vries, Laurens, 2004. "Insufficient incentives for investment in electricity generations," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 253-267, December.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Ashley W. Wang, 2004. "Electricity Forward Prices: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1877-1900, 08.
- Johnston, A. & Amalia, A. & Neuhoff, K., 2007.
"Take-or-pay contracts for Renewables Deployment,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0723, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Severin Borenstein, 2002. "The Trouble With Electricity Markets: Understanding California's Restructuring Disaster," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 191-211, Winter.
- Michael J. Trebilcock & Roy Hrab, 2005. "Electricity Restructuring in Ontario," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 123-146.
- Orans, R. & Price, S. & Williams, J. & Woo, C.K. & Moore, J., 2007. "A Northern California-British Columbia partnership for renewable energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3979-3983, August.
- Fleten, Stein-Erik & Lemming, Jacob, 2003. "Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 409-424, September.
- Hogan, William W, 1992. "Contract Networks for Electric Power Transmission," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 211-42, September.
- Zarnikau, Jay & Hallett, Ian, 2008. "Aggregate industrial energy consumer response to wholesale prices in the restructured Texas electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1798-1808, July.
- Chi-Keung Woo & Debra Lloyd-Zannetti & Ira Horowitz, 1997. "Electricity Market Integration in the Pacific Northwest," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 75-101.
- Woo, Chi-Keung & Lloyd, Debra & Tishler, Asher, 2003. "Electricity market reform failures: UK, Norway, Alberta and California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 1103-1115, September.
- Olson, Arne & Orans, Ren & Allen, Doug & Moore, Jack & Woo, C.K., 2009. "Renewable Portfolio Standards, Greenhouse Gas Reduction, and Long-Line Transmission Investments in the WECC," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 38-46, November.
- Park, Haesun & Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 81-101, January.
- Rivier Abbad, Juan, 2010. "Electricity market participation of wind farms: the success story of the Spanish pragmatism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3174-3179, July.
- Marckhoff, Jan & Wimschulte, Jens, 2009. "Locational price spreads and the pricing of contracts for difference: Evidence from the Nordic market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 257-268, March.
- Tishler, Asher & Milstein, Irena & Woo, Chi-Keung, 2008. "Capacity commitment and price volatility in a competitive electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1625-1647, July.
- Paul R. Kleindorfer & Lide Li, 2005. "Multi-Period VaR-Constrained Portfolio Optimization with Applications to the Electric Power Sector," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-26.
- Newbery, David, 2010. "Market design for a large share of wind power," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3131-3134, July.
- Guthrie, Graeme & Videbeck, Steen, 2007. "Electricity spot price dynamics: Beyond financial models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5614-5621, November.
- Keppo, Jussi & Lu, Hao, 2003. "Real options and a large producer: the case of electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 459-472, September.
- Woo, Chi-Keung & Horowitz, Ira & Martin, Jennifer, 1998. "Reliability Differentiation of Electricity Transmission," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 277-92, May.
- Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2009. "The intermittency of wind, solar, and renewable electricity generators: Technical barrier or rhetorical excuse?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 288-296, September.
- Goto, Mika & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2004. "Understanding Electricity Price Volatility within and across Markets," Working Paper Series 2004-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Severin Borenstein & James B. Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak, 2002. "Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1376-1405, December.
- Johnsen, Tor Arnt, 2001. "Demand, generation and price in the Norwegian market for electric power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 227-251, May.
- Hartman, Raymond S & Doane, Michael J & Woo, Chi-Keung, 1991. "Consumer Rationality and the Status Quo," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 141-62, February.
- Pollitt, M.G., 2010. "UK Renewable Energy Policy Since Privatisation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1007, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:7:p:3928-3938. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.