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Blowing in the Wind: Vanishing Payoffs of a Tolling Agreement for Natural-gas-fired Generation of Electricity in Texas

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  • Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Brian Horii, Ren Orans, and Jay Zarnikau

Abstract

We use a large Texas database to quantify the effect of rising wind generation on the payoffs of a tolling agreement for natural-gas-fired generation of electricity. We find that while a 20% increase in wind generation may not have a statistically-significant effect, a 40% increase can reduce the agreement's average payoff by 8% to 13%. Since natural-gas-fired generation is necessary for integrating large amounts of intermittent wind energy into an electric grid, our finding contributes to the policy debate of capacity adequacy and system reliability in a restructured electricity market that will see large-scale wind-generation development.

Suggested Citation

  • Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Brian Horii, Ren Orans, and Jay Zarnikau, 2012. "Blowing in the Wind: Vanishing Payoffs of a Tolling Agreement for Natural-gas-fired Generation of Electricity in Texas," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:33-1-a08
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    Cited by:

    1. Barbose, Galen & Wiser, Ryan & Heeter, Jenny & Mai, Trieu & Bird, Lori & Bolinger, Mark & Carpenter, Alberta & Heath, Garvin & Keyser, David & Macknick, Jordan & Mills, Andrew & Millstein, Dev, 2016. "A retrospective analysis of benefits and impacts of U.S. renewable portfolio standards," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 645-660.
    2. Levin, Todd & Botterud, Audun, 2015. "Electricity market design for generator revenue sufficiency with increased variable generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 392-406.
    3. Woo, C.K. & Ho, T. & Zarnikau, J. & Olson, A. & Jones, R. & Chait, M. & Horowitz, I. & Wang, J., 2014. "Electricity-market price and nuclear power plant shutdown: Evidence from California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 234-244.
    4. repec:eee:enepol:v:113:y:2018:i:c:p:731-746 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.
    6. Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Jay Zarnikau, Jack Moore, Brendan Schneiderman, Tony Ho, and Eric Leung, 2016. "What Moves the Ex Post Variable Profit of Natural-Gas-Fired Generation in California?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    7. Sreedharan, P. & Farbes, J. & Cutter, E. & Woo, C.K. & Wang, J., 2016. "Microgrid and renewable generation integration: University of California, San Diego," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 709-720.
    8. Woo, C.K. & Sreedharan, P. & Hargreaves, J. & Kahrl, F. & Wang, J. & Horowitz, I., 2014. "A review of electricity product differentiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 262-272.
    9. Spodniak, Petr & Bertsch, Valentin, 2017. "Determinants of power spreads in electricity futures markets: A multinational analysis," Papers WP580, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2018. "Hedging spark spread risk with futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 731-746.
    11. J. Zarnikau & C. Woo & R. Baldick, 2014. "Did the introduction of a nodal market structure impact wholesale electricity prices in the Texas (ERCOT) market?," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 194-208, April.
    12. repec:eee:energy:v:144:y:2018:i:c:p:887-902 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:eee:appene:v:204:y:2017:i:c:p:531-543 is not listed on IDEAS

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    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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