Nonlinearity in cap-and-trade systems: The EUA price and its fundamentals
In this paper we examine the nonlinear relation between the EUA price and its fundamentals, such as energy prices, macroeconomic risk factors and weather conditions. By estimating a Markov regime-switching model, we find that the relation between the EUA price and its fundamentals varies over time. In particular, we are able to identify a low and a high volatility regime, both showing a strong impact of the fundamentals on the EUA price. The most important EUA price drivers are changes on the stock market and energy prices. The gas price and a broad European equity index affect the EUA price positively in both regimes, while the coal price and the oil price have a significant, but also positive impact only during the high and the low volatility regime, respectively. The high volatility regime is predominant in phases when economic activities are on a decrease or when institutional changes harm the confidence in the stringency of the EU ETS. This holds during the recession of 2008 and 2009, as well as during 2011 and 2012 when the debt crisis impaired the European economic outlook.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: L 7,1; D - 68161 Mannheim|
Web page: http://www.zew.de/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/6969 is not listed on IDEAS
- Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Chèze, Benoît, 2009. "Emissions Compliances and Carbon Prices under the EU ETS: A Country Specific Analysis of Industrial Sectors," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 446-462, May.
- Chevallier, Julien, 2009. "Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors: A view from the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 614-625, July.
- Hintermann, Beat, 2010.
"Allowance price drivers in the first phase of the EU ETS,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-56, January.
- Beat Hintermann, 2009. "Allowance Price Drivers in the First Phase of the EU ETS," CEPE Working paper series 09-63, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
- Demailly, Damien & Quirion, Philippe, 2008. "European Emission Trading Scheme and competitiveness: A case study on the iron and steel industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 2009-2027, July.
- D. Demailly & Philippe Quirion, 2008. "European Emission Trading Scheme and competitiveness: A case study on the iron and steel industry," Post-Print hal-00719252, HAL.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/4222 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/6970 is not listed on IDEAS
- Keppler, Jan Horst & Mansanet-Bataller, Maria, 2010. "Causalities between CO2, electricity, and other energy variables during phase I and phase II of the EU ETS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3329-3341, July.
- Creti, Anna & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Carbon price drivers: Phase I versus Phase II equilibrium?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 327-334.
- Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I Versus Phase II Equilibrium?," Working Papers 2011-09, CEPII research center.
- Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I versus Phase II Equilibrium?," Working Papers 1106, Chaire Economie du climat.
- Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I versus Phase II Equilibrium?," Post-Print hal-01385813, HAL.
- Chen, Ying & HÃ¤rdle, Wolfgang Karl & Pigorsch, Uta, 2010. "Localized Realized Volatility Modeling," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(492), pages 1376-1393.
- Ying Chen & Wolfgang HÃ¤rdle & Uta Pigorsch, 2009. "Localized Realized Volatility Modelling," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-003, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
- Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Hyung, Namwon, 2004. "Occasional structural breaks and long memory with an application to the S&P 500 absolute stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 399-421, June.
- Thomas Mikosch & Catalin Starica, 2004. "Non-stationarities in financial time series, the long range dependence and the IGARCH effects," Econometrics 0412005, EconWPA.
- Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Gray's 1996 Regime Switching GARCH paper," Statistical Software Components RTZ00080, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Conrad, Christian & Rittler, Daniel & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2012. "Modeling and explaining the dynamics of European Union Allowance prices at high-frequency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 316-326.
- Conrad, Christian & Rittler, Daniel & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2010. "Modeling and Explaining the Dynamics of European Union Allowance Prices at High-Frequency," Working Papers 0497, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Conrad, Christian & Rittler, Daniel & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2010. "Modeling and explaining the dynamics of European Union allowance prices at high-frequency," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-038, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Angel Pardo & Enric Valor, 2007. "CO2 Prices, Energy and Weather," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-92.
- Ellerman,A. Denny & Convery,Frank J. & de Perthuis,Christian, 2010. "Pricing Carbon," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521196475.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
- Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/5269 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
- Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- Franc Klaassen, 2002. "Improving GARCH volatility forecasts with regime-switching GARCH," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 363-394.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/4210 is not listed on IDEAS
- Paolella, Marc S. & Taschini, Luca, 2008. "An econometric analysis of emission allowance prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2022-2032, October.
- Massimo Peri & Lucia Baldi, 2011. "Nonlinear price dynamics between CO2 futures and Brent," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(13), pages 1207-1211.
- Gernot Klepper & Sonja Peterson, 2004. "The EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Allowance Prices, Trade Flows, Competitiveness Effects," Working Papers 2004.49, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Klepper, Gernot & Peterson, Sonja, 2004. "The EU emissions trading scheme: allowance prices, trade flows, competitiveness effects," Kiel Working Papers 1195, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Montagnoli, Alberto & de Vries, Frans P., 2010. "Carbon trading thickness and market efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1331-1336, November.
- Robert F. Engle, 2000. "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-22, January.
- Robert F. Engle, 1996. "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 5816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bredin, Don & Muckley, Cal, 2011. "An emerging equilibrium in the EU emissions trading scheme," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 353-362, March.
- Sadorsky, Perry, 2002. "Time-varying risk premiums in petroleum futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 539-556, November.
- Robles-Fernandez M. Dolores & Nieto Luisa & Fernandez M. Angeles, 2004. "Nonlinear Intraday Dynamics in Eurostoxx50 Index Markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-28, December.
- Aatola, Piia & Ollikainen, Markku & Toppinen, Anne, 2013. "Price determination in the EU ETS market: Theory and econometric analysis with market fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 380-395.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January.
- Anger, Niels & Oberndorfer, Ulrich, 2008. "Firm performance and employment in the EU emissions trading scheme: An empirical assessment for Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 12-22, January.
- Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/4224 is not listed on IDEAS Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:13001r. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.