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Linear and non-linear Granger causality between oil spot and futures prices: A wavelet based test

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  • Alzahrani, Mohammed
  • Masih, Mansur
  • Al-Titi, Omar

Abstract

This study is the first attempt to investigate both the linear and non-linear Granger causality between wavelet transformed spot and futures oil prices. Our findings consistently indicate bidirectional causality between the spot and futures oil markets at different time scales, under linear and non-linear causality assumptions, and also during the recent financial crisis. Our results tend to shed further light on the ongoing controversy over the relative price discovery role played by spot market as opposed to futures market in oil price fluctuations, especially during periods of high uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Alzahrani, Mohammed & Masih, Mansur & Al-Titi, Omar, 2014. "Linear and non-linear Granger causality between oil spot and futures prices: A wavelet based test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 175-201.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:48:y:2014:i:pa:p:175-201
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.07.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Haiqi & Zhong, Wanling & Park, Sung Y., 2016. "Generalized cross-spectral test for nonlinear Granger causality with applications to money–output and price–volume relations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 661-671.
    2. Haiyun Xu, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and housing returns in Germany: Evidence from a bootstrap rolling window," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 309-332.
    3. Saada Abba Abdullahi & Zahid Muhammad, 2016. "Price discovery and risk transfer in the Brent crude oil futures market," International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 23-35.
    4. Cao, Guangxi & Han, Yan & Li, Qingchen & Xu, Wei, 2017. "Asymmetric MF-DCCA method based on risk conduction and its application in the Chinese and foreign stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 119-130.
    5. Delphine Lautier & Franck Raynaud & Michel Robe, 2017. "Information Flows across the Futures Term Structure: Evidence from Crude Oil Prices," Post-Print hal-01781761, HAL.
    6. Nicolau, Mihaela & Palomba, Giulio, 2015. "Dynamic relationships between spot and futures prices. The case of energy and gold commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 130-143.
    7. repec:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:98-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Delphine Lautier & Franck Raynaud & Michel Robe, 2017. "Shocks propagation across the futures term structure : evidence from crude oil prices," Post-Print hal-01781765, HAL.
    9. repec:rjr:romjef:v::y:2018:i:2:p:80-94 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ftiti, Zied & Guesmi, Khaled & Abid, Ilyes, 2016. "Oil price and stock market co-movement: What can we learn from time-scale approaches?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 266-280.
    11. repec:eee:phsmap:v:499:y:2018:i:c:p:420-427 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2017. "Wavelet-based test of co-movement and causality between oil and renewable energy stock prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-252.
    13. repec:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1245-2 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Causality; Wavelet method; Oil prices; Oil futures;

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