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The relation of monthly spot to futures prices for natural gas

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  • Herbert, John H.

Abstract

The relationship between the spot price for natural gas for a delivery month and the futures contract price for the same delivery month is examined. The estimated regression equation provides a good summary of the relationship between spot and futures prices for the time period and can also be used to obtain accurate forecasts of spot prices. It appears that the natural gas futures market is inefficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Herbert, John H., 1993. "The relation of monthly spot to futures prices for natural gas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 18(11), pages 1119-1124.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:18:y:1993:i:11:p:1119-1124
    DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(93)90084-Q
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle & Dale, Larry & Lekov, Alex, 2006. "Comparing price forecast accuracy of natural gas models and futures markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 4115-4122, December.
    2. Gebre-Mariam, Yohannes Kebede, 2011. "Testing for unit roots, causality, cointegration, and efficiency: The case of the northwest US natural gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3489-3500.
    3. Herbert, John H & Kreil, Erik, 1996. "US natural gas markets : How efficient are they?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-5, January.
    4. Menzie D. Chinn & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 607-636, July.
    5. Jena, Sangram Keshari & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Distributional predictability between commodity spot and futures: Evidence from nonparametric causality-in-quantiles tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 615-628.
    6. Herbert, John H, 1995. "Trading volume, maturity and natural gas futures price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 293-299, October.
    7. Bolinger, Mark & Wiser, Ryan & Golove, William, 2006. "Accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable to gas-fired generation: the role of forward natural gas prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 706-720, April.
    8. Tonn, Victor Lux & Li, H.C. & McCarthy, Joseph, 2010. "Wavelet domain correlation between the futures prices of natural gas and oil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 408-414, November.
    9. Nicolau, Mihaela & Palomba, Giulio, 2015. "Dynamic relationships between spot and futures prices. The case of energy and gold commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 130-143.
    10. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael LeBlanc & Olivier Coibion, 2005. "The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline," NBER Working Papers 11033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Mihaela NICOLAU & Giulio PALOMBA & Ilaria TRAINI, 2013. "Are Futures Prices Influenced by Spot;Prices or Vice-versa? An Analysis of Crude;Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Markets," Working Papers 394, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

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