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External Habit and the Cyclicality of Expected Stock Returns

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We estimate an equilibrium asset pricing model in which agents' preferences have an unobserved external habit using the efficient method of moments (EMM). Given the estimated structural parameters, we examine the cyclical behavior of expected stock returns in the model. We find that the estimated structural parameters imply countercyclical expected stock returns as documented in existing empirical studies. The model, however, is still rejected at the 1% level. Detailed examination of the moment conditions in our estimation indicates that the model performs reasonably well in matching the mean of returns, but it fails to capture the higher-order moments.
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  • Thomas Tallarini & Harold Zhang, "undated". "External Habit and the Cyclicality of Expected Stock Returns," GSIA Working Papers 1997-26, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:32
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    Cited by:

    1. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2009. "Let's take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 749-765, September.
    2. Ming Liu & Harold H. Zhang, "undated". "Specification Tests in the Efficient Method of Moments Framework with Application to the Stochastic Volatility Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 93, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Michael T. Kiley, 2010. "Habit Persistence, Nonseparability between Consumption and Leisure, or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 679-683, August.
    4. Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, February.
    5. Olivier Allais, 2004. "Local Substitution and Habit Persistence: Matching the Moments of the Equity Premium and the Risk-Free Rate," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 265-296, April.
    6. Balvers, Ronald J. & Huang, Dayong, 2007. "Productivity-based asset pricing: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 405-445, November.
    7. Pohl, Walt, 2016. "External habit: Anything goes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 140-142.
    8. Liu, Ming & Zhang, Harold H., 1998. "Overparameterization in the seminonparametric density estimation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 11-18, July.
    9. Christophe Chamley, 2006. "Complementarities in information acquisition with short-term trades," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-042, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    10. Morten Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2006. "Deep Habits," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 195-218.
    11. Møller, Stig Vinther, 2009. "Habit persistence: Explaining cross-sectional variation in returns and time-varying expected returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 525-536, September.
    12. Jianfeng Yu, 2009. "The Long and the Short of Asset Prices: Using Long Run Consumption-Return Correlations to Test Asset Pricing Models," 2009 Meeting Papers 56, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Edward R. Lawrence & John Geppert & Arun J. Prakash, 2009. "An Empirical Investigation of the Campbell-Cochrane Habit Utility Model," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5-6), pages 774-791.
    14. repec:kap:rqfnac:v:50:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0627-z is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Engsted, Tom & Hyde, Stuart & Møller, Stig V., 2010. "Habit formation, surplus consumption and return predictability: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1237-1255, November.
    16. Wachter, Jessica A., 2005. "Solving models with external habit," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 210-226, December.

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