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Habit persistence: Explaining cross sectional variation in returns and time-varying expected returns

  • Stig V. Møller

    ()

    (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark and CREATES)

This paper finds empirical support for the habit persistence model of Camp- bell and Cochrane (1999) along both cross sectional and time-series dimensions of the US stock market. GMM estimations show that the model is able to explain a substantial part of the cross sectional variation of returns on the 25 Fama and French value and size portfolios over the period 1932-2003, although it has difficul- ties in fully explaining the value premium, and some of the implied risk free rates are strongly negative. In addition, the model accounts for time-varying expected returns on stocks. Forecasting regressions show that the estimated surplus con- sumption ratio has strong forecasting power for future real stock returns and holds additional explanatory power relative to traditional financial forecasting variables such as the dividend yield. We also document that the Campbell-Cochrane model is particularly successful up to 1991. Including data from the 1990s reduces some- what the fit of the model.

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Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2007-07.

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Length: 29
Date of creation: 15 May 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2007-07
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

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  3. Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns," Staff Reports 77, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  12. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  13. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
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  15. Adrien Verdelhan, 2005. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-032, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  16. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
  17. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
  18. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
  19. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 1999. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: a cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying," Staff Reports 93, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  20. John Y. Campbell, 2002. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1974, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  21. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2000. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 8059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  23. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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  25. Jessica A. Wachter, 2005. "Solving Models with External Habit," NBER Working Papers 11559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May.
  27. Stuart Hyde & Mohamed Sherif, 2005. "Consumption Asset Pricing Models: Evidence From The Uk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(3), pages 343-363, 06.
  28. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  30. Stuart Hyde & Keith Cuthbertson & Dirk Nitzsche, 2005. "Resuscitating the C-CAPM: empirical evidence from France and Germany," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 337-357.
  31. Andrea Buraschi & Alexei Jiltsov, 2007. "Habit Formation and Macroeconomic Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 3009-3063, December.
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  33. Lars Ljungqvist & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "Optimal Endowment Destruction under Campbell-Cochrane Habit Formation," NBER Working Papers 14772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Li, Yuming, 2005. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio and the Consumption-Habit Ratio," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 226-241, April.
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