IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhb/aarbfi/2008-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Habit persistence: Explaining cross-sectional variation in returns and time-varying expected returns

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper finds empirical support for the habit persistence model of Campbell and Cochrane (1999) along both cross-sectional and time-series dimensions of the US stock market over the period 1947-2005. GMM estimations show that the model is able to explain a substantial part of the cross-sectional variation in returns on the 25 Fama and French value and size portfolios, although it has difficulties in fully explaining the value premium. In addition, the model accounts for time-varying expected returns on stocks. The surplus consumption ratio forecasts future stock returns and the forecasting power is not diminished by including the 1990s stock market boom. The extended version of the model allows for cyclical variation in interest rates and provides a reasonable fit of the real risk free rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Møller, Stig Vinther, 2008. "Habit persistence: Explaining cross-sectional variation in returns and time-varying expected returns," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2008-04, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhb:aarbfi:2008-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://research.asb.dk/fbspretrieve/1353/F-2008-04_Stig_V._M_ller
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    3. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, April.
    4. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May.
    5. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, August.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Grenadier, Steven R., 2010. "Stock and bond returns with Moody Investors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 867-894, December.
    7. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    8. Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Julliard, 2005. "Consumption Risk and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 185-222, February.
    9. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
    10. Li, Yuming, 2001. "Expected Returns and Habit Persistence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 861-899.
    11. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Xing, Yuhang, 2009. "Risk, uncertainty, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 59-82, January.
    12. Thomas D. Tallarini, Jr. & Harold H. Zhang, 2005. "External Habit and the Cyclicality of Expected Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 1023-1048, May.
    13. Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, February.
    14. Stuart Hyde & Mohamed Sherif, 2005. "Consumption Asset Pricing Models: Evidence From The Uk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(3), pages 343-363, June.
    15. Martin Lettau, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    16. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
    17. Li, Yuming, 2005. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio and the Consumption-Habit Ratio," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 226-241, April.
    18. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2007. "Why Is Long-Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration-Based Explanation of the Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 55-92, February.
    19. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2005. "Expected returns and expected dividend growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 583-626, June.
    20. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
    21. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-386.
    22. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
    23. Lars Ljungqvist & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "Optimal Endowment Destruction under Campbell-Cochrane Habit Formation," NBER Working Papers 14772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. " Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-661, June.
    25. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    26. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    27. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    28. Jacob Boudoukh & Roni Michaely & Matthew Richardson & Michael R. Roberts, 2007. "On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 877-915, April.
    29. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance,in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887 Elsevier.
    30. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    31. Andrea Buraschi & Alexei Jiltsov, 2007. "Habit Formation and Macroeconomic Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 3009-3063, December.
    32. Stuart Hyde & Keith Cuthbertson & Dirk Nitzsche, 2005. "Resuscitating the C-CAPM: empirical evidence from France and Germany," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 337-357.
    33. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Wachter, Jessica A., 2005. "Solving models with external habit," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 210-226, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Auer, Benjamin R., 2013. "Can habit formation under complete market integration explain the cross-section of international equity risk premia?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 61-67.
    2. Gómez Manuel A., 2010. "Endogenous Growth, Habit Formation and Convergence Speed," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, January.
    3. Auer Benjamin R., 2012. "Lassen sich CAPM, HCAPM und CCAPM durch konsumbasierte zeitvariable Parameterspezifikation rehabilitieren? / Can Time-varying Parameter Specification Based on Consumption Variables Rehabilitate CAPM, ," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(5), pages 518-544, October.
    4. Constantin Chilarescu & Ioana Viasu, 2016. "A Closed-form Solution of a Two-sector Endogenous Growth Model with Habit Formation," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 112-127, June.
    5. Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller, 2010. "An iterated GMM procedure for estimating the Campbell-Cochrane habit formation model, with an application to Danish Stock and bond returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 213-227.
    6. Bach, Christian & Møller, Stig V., 2011. "Habit-based asset pricing with limited participation consumption," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2891-2901, November.
    7. Engsted, Tom & Hyde, Stuart & Møller, Stig V., 2010. "Habit formation, surplus consumption and return predictability: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1237-1255, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Campbell-Cochrane model; 25 Fama-French portfolios; GMM; return predictability by surplus-consumption ratio;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhb:aarbfi:2008-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Helle Vinbaek Stenholt). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ifhhadk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.