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Technological innovations and aggregate risk premiums

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  • Hsu, Po-Hsuan

Abstract

In this paper, I propose that technological innovations increase expected stock returns and premiums at the aggregate level. I use aggregate patent data and research and development (R&D) data to measure technological innovations in the U.S., and find that patent shocks and R&D shocks have positive and distinct predictive power for U.S. market returns and premiums. Similar patterns are also found in international data including other G7 countries, China, and India. These findings are consistent with previous empirical studies based on firm-level data, and call for further theoretical explanations.

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  • Hsu, Po-Hsuan, 2009. "Technological innovations and aggregate risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 264-279, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:94:y:2009:i:2:p:264-279
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    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Xiaoji, 2012. "Endogenous technological progress and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, pages 411-427.
    2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Thuraisamy, Kannan & Westerlund, Joakim, 2016. "Price discovery and asset pricing," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 224-235.
    3. Gu, Lifeng, 2016. "Product market competition, R&D investment, and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 441-455.
    4. Li, Hao-Chung & Lee, Wen-Chieh & Ko, Bo-Ting, 2017. "What determines misallocation in innovation? A study of regional innovation in China," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 221-237.
    5. David Hirshleifer & Po-Hsuan Hsu & Dongmei Li, 2017. "Innovative Originality, Profitability, and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 23432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. repec:eee:pacfin:v:46:y:2017:i:pa:p:158-176 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Qiu, Jiaping & Wan, Chi, 2015. "Technology spillovers and corporate cash holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 558-573.
    8. Hyunbae Chun & Jung-Wook Kim & Randall Morck, 2016. "Productivity growth and stock returns: firm- and aggregate-level analyses," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(38), pages 3644-3664, August.
    9. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    10. Belo, Frederico & Yu, Jianfeng, 2013. "Government investment and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 325-339.
    11. Frederico Belo & Xiaoji Lin & Maria Ana Vitorino, 2014. "Brand Capital and Firm Value," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(1), pages 150-169, January.
    12. Josh Lerner & Amit Seru, 2017. "The Use and Misuse of Patent Data: Issues for Corporate Finance and Beyond," NBER Working Papers 24053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Frederico Belo & Xiaoji Lin & Maria Ana Vitorino, 2014. "Brand Capital and Firm Value," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(1), pages 150-169, January.
    14. Xiaoji Lin & Frederico Belo & Maria Ana Vitorino, 2011. "Advertising, Brand Capital and Asset Returns," 2011 Meeting Papers 462, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Grammig, Joachim G. & Jank, Stephan, 2010. "Creative destruction and asset prices," CFR Working Papers 10-14, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    16. Hsu, Hung-Chia Scott, 2013. "Technology timing of IPOs and venture capital incubation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 36-55.
    17. Anil Nair & Orhun Guldiken & Stav Fainshmidt & Amir Pezeshkan, 2015. "Innovation in India: A review of past research and future directions," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 925-958, December.
    18. Yu, Gun Jea & Hong, KiHoon, 2016. "Patents and R&D expenditure in explaining stock price movements," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 197-203.
    19. Adcock, Christopher & Hua, Xiuping & Mazouz, Khelifa & Yin, Shuxing, 2014. "Does the stock market reward innovation? European stock index reaction to negative news during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 470-491.
    20. Hirshleifer, David & Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Li, Dongmei, 2013. "Innovative efficiency and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 632-654.
    21. Nicolae B. Gârleanu & Stavros Panageas & Jianfeng Yu, 2009. "Technological Growth and Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 15340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Re-Jin Guo & Nan Zhou, 2016. "Innovation capability and post-IPO performance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 335-357, February.
    23. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2017. "Does Financial News Predict Stock Returns? New Evidence from Islamic and Non-Islamic Stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 24-45.

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