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Changes in the composition of publicly traded firms: Implications for the dividend-price ratio and return predictability

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  • Jank, Stephan

Abstract

This article documents how the changing composition of U.S. publicly traded firms has prompted a decline in the long-run mean of the aggregate dividend-price ratio, most notably since the 1970s. Adjusting the dividend-price ratio for such changes resolves several issues with respect to the predictability of stock market returns: The adjusted dividend-price ratio is less persistent, in-sample evidence for predictability is more pronounced, there is greater parameter stability in the predictive regression (particularly during the 1990s), and there is evidence of out-of-sample predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Jank, Stephan, 2012. "Changes in the composition of publicly traded firms: Implications for the dividend-price ratio and return predictability," CFR Working Papers 12-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1208
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Trapp, Monika & Wewel, Claudio, 2012. "Transatlantic systemic risk," CFR Working Papers 12-10, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    return predictability; dividend-price ratio; payout policy; sample selection; choice of organizational structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy

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