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Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap

Author

Listed:
  • Allan Timmermann

  • Halbert White
  • Ryan Sullivan

Abstract

In this paper we utilize Whites Reality Check bootstrap methodology (White (1997)) to evaluate simple technical trading rules while quantifying the data-snooping bias and fully adjusting for its effect inthe context of the full universe form which the trading rules are drawn. Henxe, for the first time, the paper presents a comrehensive test of perfomance across all technical trading rules examined. We consider the study of brock, Lakonishok and LeBaron (1992), expand their universe of 26 trading rules, apply the rules to 100 years of daily data on the Dow Jone Industrial Average, and determine the effects of data-snooping.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," FMG Discussion Papers dp303, Financial Markets Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp303
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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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